MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Corn(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		22	23	18	16	21	17	21	16	19	25	25
Exceeded High		19	19	15	12	11	16	13	10	16	20	18
Scenario Percentage		86%	83%	83%	75%	52%	94%	62%	63%	84%	80%	72%
Avg Max Increase		13.70%	12.75%	16.13%	13.01%	8.86%	11.44%	8.71%	8.74%	8.83%	6.55%	2.78%
Max Increase		56.84%	45.67%	70.21%	29.19%	32.23%	42.96%	17.55%	29.33%	27.63%	16.19%	8.20%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	13	12	17	15	16	24	15	17	8	6
Avg Max Decline		-3.39%	-2.44%	-0.48%	-2.86%	-3.37%	-3.11%	-2.52%	-3.36%	-2.06%	-1.32%	-1.29%
Max Decline		-7.89%	-5.76%	-5.30%	-11.73%	-11.20%	-9.57%	-12.56%	-9.73%	-5.89%	-3.09%	-5.01%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	7	3	6	15	9	10	9	8	5	3
2018 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes							Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes							Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		23	22	27	29	24	28	24	28	26	20	20
Penetrated Low		22	20	24	24	16	24	21	23	20	14	7
Scenario Percentage		96%	91%	89%	83%	67%	86%	88%	82%	77%	70%	35%
Avg Max Decline		7.39%	9.37%	10.57%	7.59%	7.54%	7.67%	8.35%	6.83%	5.70%	6.12%	2.66%
Max Decline		15.47%	22.39%	16.96%	19.56%	37.09%	30.45%	27.13%	21.39%	24.80%	20.24%	4.47%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	21	17	19	15	20	16	13	14	11	5
Avg Max Increase		-3.25%	-3.95%	-2.19%	-2.89%	-1.28%	-2.09%	-1.80%	-1.90%	-1.64%	-1.75%	-1.31%
Max Increase		-17.82%	-16.67%	-14.97%	-10.06%	-4.10%	-4.91%	-5.47%	-7.27%	-5.15%	-6.87%	-3.39%
Avg Days to Max Increase		12	11	6	10	5	10	8	10	8	6	3
2018 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
High	409.50	404.50	405.00	416.75	426.00	400.50	374.50	369.25	365.25	360.50	362.25	376.75
Low	387.75	389.00	392.00	384.00	390.75	357.25	358.00	356.25	348.75	346.50	345.50	356.25
Close/Last	397.25	394.75	401.00	401.25	396.25	370.50	367.75	359.50	355.75	350.75	361.50	374.50