MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Corn(CBOT) as of Dec 31, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		41	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		18	23	20	15	21	15	22	21	20	22	21
Exceeded High		16	19	15	11	13	13	14	13	16	15	14
Scenario Percentage		89%	83%	75%	73%	62%	87%	64%	62%	80%	68%	67%
Avg Max Increase		14.54%	13.42%	15.45%	11.72%	6.37%	11.69%	8.15%	8.60%	8.47%	6.58%	2.26%
Max Increase		56.84%	45.67%	70.21%	24.76%	12.62%	42.96%	17.55%	29.33%	27.63%	16.19%	5.81%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	14	13	16	14	17	21	14	17	10	5
Avg Max Decline		-2.27%	-2.38%	-1.09%	-2.93%	-3.15%	-3.07%	-1.37%	-2.46%	-2.05%	-1.99%	-1.22%
Max Decline		-5.95%	-5.76%	-6.16%	-11.73%	-11.20%	-9.57%	-3.18%	-9.73%	-5.89%	-8.05%	-5.01%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	7	5	7	14	10	12	7	10	7	2
2010 Contract Condition			Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action			Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		41	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		23	22	25	30	24	30	23	23	25	23	23
Penetrated Low		22	19	22	24	18	24	18	17	18	18	8
Scenario Percentage		96%	86%	88%	80%	75%	80%	78%	74%	72%	78%	35%
Avg Max Decline		7.38%	9.04%	10.16%	6.95%	6.66%	7.47%	8.41%	7.19%	6.22%	5.43%	2.53%
Max Decline		15.47%	22.39%	16.96%	19.56%	37.09%	30.45%	27.13%	21.39%	24.80%	20.24%	4.47%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	22	17	19	17	22	17	14	16	10	5
Avg Max Increase		-3.07%	-4.07%	-2.31%	-2.26%	-1.25%	-2.17%	-2.05%	-1.55%	-1.68%	-1.34%	-1.38%
Max Increase		-17.82%	-16.67%	-14.97%	-10.06%	-4.10%	-4.91%	-5.47%	-3.22%	-5.15%	-3.94%	-3.39%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	11	6	8	4	10	8	11	9	4	2
2010 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes
High	448.00	449.00	470.00	483.50	386.25	389.00	361.25	424.50	425.00	421.25	426.25	380.00
Low	388.25	402.50	430.50	379.50	328.25	325.50	315.50	341.00	372.50	379.00	355.25	347.50
Close/Last	447.50	434.75	469.25	379.50	362.25	342.50	356.75	379.25	417.50	414.50	356.50	378.00