MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Canadian Dollar(CME) as of Jun 08, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		37	40	41	42	43	43	43	43	43	43	43
Closed Higher		16	16	20	15	20	24	28	19	28	20	21
Exceeded High		10	15	19	13	19	20	23	13	19	14	15
Scenario Percentage		63%	94%	95%	87%	95%	83%	82%	68%	68%	70%	71%
Avg Max Increase		2.29%	2.25%	2.01%	1.90%	3.00%	3.31%	2.31%	2.77%	2.09%	2.22%	1.17%
Max Increase		4.18%	5.00%	5.24%	4.27%	8.23%	15.45%	10.55%	8.67%	4.38%	4.25%	2.55%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	19	15	12	21	14	16	17	20	13	9
Avg Max Decline		-0.43%	-0.87%	-0.68%	-0.55%	-0.99%	-0.63%	-0.63%	-1.17%	-0.53%	-0.50%	-0.37%
Max Decline		-2.20%	-3.09%	-4.64%	-1.99%	-3.50%	-1.84%	-2.37%	-6.76%	-1.71%	-2.58%	-0.87%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	15	10	8	10	6	6	11	9	6	4
2019 Contract Condition					Yes					Yes
Action					Yes					Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		37	40	41	42	43	43	43	43	43	43	43
Closed Lower		21	24	20	27	23	19	15	24	15	23	22
Penetrated Low		15	18	14	21	16	13	14	16	10	16	11
Scenario Percentage		71%	75%	70%	78%	70%	68%	93%	67%	67%	70%	50%
Avg Max Decline		2.55%	3.45%	3.05%	2.48%	2.38%	1.66%	1.84%	2.32%	3.13%	1.97%	1.29%
Max Decline		7.57%	9.93%	8.67%	6.31%	4.29%	4.39%	6.16%	4.91%	7.59%	5.39%	2.44%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	22	16	14	16	15	16	18	17	12	10
Avg Max Increase		-0.68%	-0.43%	-0.32%	-0.52%	-0.43%	-0.44%	-0.41%	-0.80%	-0.76%	-0.36%	-0.46%
Max Increase		-4.24%	-2.44%	-1.43%	-2.62%	-2.63%	-1.78%	-1.78%	-3.76%	-2.06%	-1.77%	-2.30%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	7	9	5	8	8	5	9	7	7	3
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes
High	77.97	78.69	76.86	76.36	76.60	76.85	76.36	75.58	75.06	76.69	76.92	75.96
Low	76.18	76.32	75.28	73.61	73.66	75.38	74.62	74.23	73.94	74.12	75.74	74.97
Close/Last	77.88	76.32	75.64	73.77	76.55	76.44	75.18	74.91	74.14	76.56	75.86	75.09