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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for June Canadian Dollar(CME) as of Jul 10, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   22 22 26 21 17 24 15 21 27 28 20
Exceeded High   17 16 17 13 15 19 12 19 21 22 12
Scenario Percentage   77% 73% 65% 62% 88% 79% 80% 90% 78% 79% 60%
Avg Max Increase   2.33% 2.90% 2.82% 2.19% 2.22% 2.08% 1.82% 3.27% 3.58% 2.36% 1.51%
Max Increase   5.50% 11.46% 9.39% 4.29% 4.34% 4.98% 4.31% 8.25% 15.65% 10.60% 3.51%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 19 15 18 20 19 13 23 17 10 8
Avg Max Decline   -0.75% -0.44% -0.40% -0.61% -0.95% -0.85% -0.66% -1.15% -0.60% -0.72% -0.34%
Max Decline   -2.99% -2.51% -2.55% -2.21% -3.26% -4.68% -2.02% -3.58% -1.84% -1.99% -0.83%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 5 8 6 16 12 7 10 7 5 2
2025 Contract Condition     Yes           Yes Yes Yes Yes
Action     No           Yes Yes Yes Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   22 22 19 23 28 21 30 23 17 17 25
Penetrated Low   16 15 16 16 21 15 23 18 12 14 12
Scenario Percentage   73% 68% 84% 70% 75% 71% 77% 78% 71% 82% 48%
Avg Max Decline   2.06% 3.80% 1.82% 2.67% 3.32% 2.98% 2.74% 2.51% 1.57% 1.83% 1.17%
Max Decline   5.49% 17.67% 4.31% 7.59% 10.34% 9.06% 9.76% 8.59% 4.44% 6.31% 1.96%
Avg Days To Max Decline   17 19 16 17 21 16 13 16 16 16 7
Avg Max Increase   -0.41% -1.03% -0.75% -0.70% -0.55% -0.52% -0.65% -0.53% -0.50% -0.52% -0.17%
Max Increase   -2.16% -3.36% -2.40% -4.26% -2.62% -1.38% -2.57% -2.84% -1.82% -1.86% -0.75%
Avg Days to Max Increase   9 11 7 7 5 10 7 7 9 6 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes        
Action   Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes        
High 74.07 74.15 74.86 74.81 74.64 72.81 71.83 70.53 71.04 70.57 72.81 73.15
Low 73.22 72.75 72.17 73.83 72.30 71.19 69.60 68.95 68.03 69.12 69.64 71.47
Close/Last 73.64 73.10 74.63 74.40 72.47 71.97 69.98 69.35 69.50 69.83 72.72 72.96

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