MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Canadian Dollar(CME) as of Aug 18, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		28	20	27	23	23	28	21	16	23	16	24
Exceeded High		22	14	20	17	19	19	14	14	20	13	15
Scenario Percentage		79%	70%	74%	74%	83%	68%	67%	88%	87%	81%	63%
Avg Max Increase		2.52%	2.57%	2.09%	2.61%	2.65%	2.73%	2.15%	2.00%	2.07%	1.55%	1.52%
Max Increase		10.35%	8.40%	4.32%	5.66%	11.64%	9.54%	4.41%	4.07%	4.62%	4.39%	3.58%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	15	22	17	16	15	16	19	19	7	8
Avg Max Decline		-0.65%	-0.91%	-0.47%	-0.85%	-0.50%	-0.54%	-0.60%	-0.98%	-0.87%	-0.64%	-0.27%
Max Decline		-2.05%	-6.78%	-1.87%	-2.99%	-2.56%	-2.54%	-2.24%	-3.31%	-4.63%	-2.04%	-1.31%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	9	9	11	5	8	6	14	10	6	2
2023 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			Yes		Yes			Yes	No		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		15	25	18	22	22	17	23	28	22	29	21
Penetrated Low		13	14	13	16	15	14	17	22	16	21	14
Scenario Percentage		87%	56%	72%	73%	68%	82%	74%	79%	73%	72%	67%
Avg Max Decline		1.89%	2.60%	3.20%	2.34%	3.90%	1.70%	2.43%	3.10%	2.92%	2.31%	1.69%
Max Decline		5.05%	4.79%	8.04%	5.52%	17.72%	3.91%	7.78%	10.47%	9.18%	5.91%	4.26%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	18	17	18	17	15	18	21	17	10	8
Avg Max Increase		-0.35%	-0.77%	-1.02%	-0.50%	-0.97%	-0.80%	-0.99%	-0.73%	-0.51%	-0.59%	-0.20%
Max Increase		-1.75%	-3.73%	-4.75%	-2.16%	-3.44%	-2.32%	-4.44%	-2.60%	-1.37%	-2.65%	-0.66%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	8	8	9	9	7	11	7	9	6	1
2023 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes
Action		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes			No		Yes
High	80.35	80.55	79.12	79.69	78.17	78.59	77.22	74.23	75.74	74.83	75.22	75.42
Low	77.56	77.60	76.43	76.55	75.69	76.13	72.38	71.70	72.57	73.04	73.10	73.18
Close/Last	80.05	77.88	79.06	77.75	78.05	76.22	72.51	73.54	74.54	73.92	75.18	73.39