MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Canadian Dollar(CME) as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		42	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		28	19	27	22	23	30	20	15	24	15	23
Exceeded High		22	12	20	16	19	20	13	14	20	12	15
Scenario Percentage		79%	63%	74%	73%	83%	67%	65%	93%	83%	80%	65%
Avg Max Increase		2.49%	2.89%	2.09%	2.73%	2.65%	2.64%	2.08%	2.00%	2.04%	1.65%	1.68%
Max Increase		10.35%	8.40%	4.32%	5.66%	11.64%	9.54%	4.41%	4.07%	4.62%	4.39%	3.58%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	17	22	17	16	15	17	19	19	8	9
Avg Max Decline		-0.62%	-1.06%	-0.47%	-0.83%	-0.50%	-0.52%	-0.55%	-0.98%	-0.78%	-0.65%	-0.26%
Max Decline		-2.05%	-6.78%	-1.87%	-2.99%	-2.56%	-2.54%	-2.24%	-3.31%	-4.63%	-2.04%	-1.31%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	10	9	11	5	8	6	14	10	7	2
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		42	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		14	25	17	23	22	15	24	29	21	30	22
Penetrated Low		12	14	12	17	15	13	17	22	16	22	15
Scenario Percentage		86%	56%	71%	74%	68%	87%	71%	76%	76%	73%	68%
Avg Max Decline		1.90%	2.60%	3.03%	2.15%	3.71%	1.74%	2.43%	3.09%	2.92%	2.40%	1.71%
Max Decline		5.05%	4.79%	8.04%	5.52%	17.72%	3.91%	7.78%	10.47%	9.18%	5.91%	4.26%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	18	18	18	18	15	18	20	17	11	9
Avg Max Increase		-0.31%	-0.77%	-1.02%	-0.43%	-0.96%	-0.68%	-0.99%	-0.63%	-0.51%	-0.52%	-0.19%
Max Increase		-1.75%	-3.73%	-4.75%	-2.16%	-3.44%	-1.89%	-4.44%	-2.60%	-1.37%	-2.65%	-0.66%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	8	8	8	10	7	11	7	9	4	2
2021 Contract Condition							Yes	Yes			Yes
Action							No	No			Not Yet
High	74.88	72.30	72.87	75.06	75.04	76.81	76.97	76.48	77.41	78.87	79.44	80.21
Low	68.79	70.14	70.67	72.85	73.36	74.40	74.57	74.60	74.84	76.95	77.64	77.71
Close/Last	71.11	71.86	72.58	73.63	74.74	76.81	75.16	75.13	77.19	78.34	78.12	78.70