MRCI Logo
MRCI's Scenario Study

MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Cocoa(ICE) as of Jun 08, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   17 23 23 21 19 22 23 24 24 16 22
Exceeded High   15 16 18 15 17 19 18 13 16 13 12
Scenario Percentage   88% 70% 78% 71% 89% 86% 78% 54% 67% 81% 55%
Avg Max Increase   11.60% 11.00% 10.85% 11.59% 12.12% 9.95% 12.27% 10.89% 10.86% 8.91% 7.37%
Max Increase   29.56% 28.24% 28.94% 27.57% 22.83% 27.94% 39.24% 22.11% 28.13% 24.57% 24.48%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 19 18 20 15 16 15 15 15 13 9
Avg Max Decline   -1.96% -2.47% -3.40% -3.66% -3.95% -3.44% -4.53% -2.98% -3.64% -3.17% -0.79%
Max Decline   -9.11% -6.90% -6.94% -13.61% -11.33% -13.39% -13.88% -6.74% -9.29% -10.27% -8.68%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 11 9 9 12 9 12 6 9 7 3
2019 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes Yes Yes     Yes   Yes
Action     Yes   Yes Yes Yes     Yes   Not Yet
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   27 22 22 24 26 23 22 19 21 29 23
Penetrated Low   24 19 18 20 23 15 19 12 20 21 12
Scenario Percentage   89% 86% 82% 83% 88% 65% 86% 63% 95% 72% 52%
Avg Max Decline   7.47% 10.00% 12.29% 10.25% 7.38% 8.90% 8.63% 8.06% 9.33% 6.53% 5.13%
Max Decline   16.73% 24.40% 27.24% 25.77% 17.36% 20.77% 25.69% 16.80% 27.01% 20.91% 12.21%
Avg Days To Max Decline   17 19 21 17 19 17 20 19 18 11 9
Avg Max Increase   -2.25% -3.32% -3.22% -2.68% -3.39% -3.98% -3.23% -5.70% -2.22% -2.81% -2.37%
Max Increase   -8.89% -22.72% -11.90% -6.72% -14.59% -8.79% -9.63% -14.93% -6.10% -9.98% -6.67%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 10 12 10 11 8 12 15 10 6 4
2019 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes       Yes Yes   Yes  
Action   Yes   No       Yes No   Yes  
High 2493 2481 2403 2322 2443 2471 2566 2606 2411 2514 2558 2783
Low 2156 2265 2271 2170 2270 2242 2340 2389 2165 2187 2391 2386
Close/Last 2468 2271 2303 2282 2376 2418 2458 2400 2222 2442 2403 2617

Copyright © 2020 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
www.mrci.comsales@mrci.com
Phone: 541-525-0521