|
 |
| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
|
| ScenarioSM Study for December Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Aug 31, 2019 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
| Tested Years |
|
20 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
29 |
29 |
29 |
30 |
| Closed Higher |
|
11 |
13 |
11 |
15 |
18 |
18 |
12 |
14 |
19 |
17 |
17 |
| Exceeded High |
|
10 |
11 |
11 |
14 |
17 |
16 |
10 |
13 |
18 |
13 |
13 |
| Scenario Percentage |
|
91% |
85% |
100% |
93% |
94% |
89% |
83% |
93% |
95% |
76% |
76% |
| Avg Max Increase |
|
7.57% |
9.73% |
10.57% |
10.69% |
10.80% |
10.21% |
9.29% |
10.46% |
15.04% |
16.41% |
7.27% |
| Max Increase |
|
16.86% |
20.24% |
25.17% |
24.34% |
22.25% |
33.88% |
17.35% |
19.80% |
86.32% |
53.95% |
14.72% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
|
14 |
16 |
15 |
18 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
19 |
16 |
15 |
| Avg Max Decline |
|
-2.40% |
-2.02% |
-3.45% |
-2.59% |
-3.41% |
-2.36% |
-1.75% |
-2.68% |
-1.89% |
-2.26% |
-2.21% |
| Max Decline |
|
-8.69% |
-7.31% |
-9.86% |
-13.88% |
-9.24% |
-6.57% |
-4.93% |
-14.47% |
-10.12% |
-13.31% |
-12.61% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
|
7 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
7 |
8 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
3 |
| 2019 Contract Condition |
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
| Action |
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
|
Yes |
Not Yet |
|
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
| Tested Years |
|
20 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
29 |
29 |
29 |
30 |
| Closed Lower |
|
9 |
11 |
13 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
15 |
15 |
10 |
12 |
13 |
| Penetrated Low |
|
5 |
7 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
9 |
9 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
| Scenario Percentage |
|
56% |
64% |
38% |
33% |
44% |
56% |
60% |
60% |
80% |
75% |
69% |
| Avg Max Decline |
|
22.38% |
15.61% |
9.60% |
7.34% |
5.70% |
10.98% |
9.88% |
11.41% |
12.62% |
14.42% |
11.07% |
| Max Decline |
|
35.56% |
25.56% |
16.55% |
11.41% |
11.76% |
23.02% |
20.92% |
33.34% |
28.79% |
49.34% |
40.72% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
|
17 |
16 |
14 |
12 |
4 |
19 |
18 |
13 |
16 |
19 |
15 |
| Avg Max Increase |
|
-0.36% |
-3.63% |
-2.48% |
-1.08% |
-2.16% |
-3.94% |
-1.21% |
-1.29% |
-3.85% |
-3.56% |
-1.88% |
| Max Increase |
|
-3.57% |
-7.63% |
-6.39% |
-2.61% |
-5.94% |
-7.61% |
-2.99% |
-6.20% |
-21.51% |
-15.64% |
-10.83% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
|
1 |
9 |
3 |
12 |
4 |
9 |
5 |
6 |
11 |
15 |
2 |
| 2019 Contract Condition |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
|
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
| Action |
|
Yes |
No |
|
|
|
|
Yes |
|
|
Not Yet |
|
| High |
81.99 |
73.90 |
64.07 |
62.93 |
66.88 |
67.26 |
71.95 |
70.01 |
65.05 |
66.56 |
63.62 |
58.48 |
| Low |
73.36 |
59.11 |
51.74 |
54.02 |
60.25 |
63.54 |
66.25 |
59.56 |
57.27 |
60.46 |
55.31 |
57.34 |
| Close/Last |
73.80 |
59.85 |
55.14 |
60.68 |
65.72 |
66.13 |
69.64 |
60.15 |
63.80 |
64.08 |
58.46 |
57.86 |
|
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