MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for November Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		16	27	27	27	29	30	30	32	32	32	33
Closed Higher		7	16	14	13	18	19	20	15	17	22	19
Exceeded High		6	14	13	12	17	18	18	11	16	21	11
Scenario Percentage		86%	88%	93%	92%	94%	95%	90%	73%	94%	95%	58%
Avg Max Increase		7.06%	8.44%	10.57%	12.58%	10.17%	10.87%	9.91%	10.92%	10.08%	14.94%	14.51%
Max Increase		11.88%	16.96%	24.48%	25.89%	25.20%	22.91%	34.75%	16.93%	20.97%	95.55%	50.87%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	14	16	14	17	17	15	17	16	18	21
Avg Max Decline		-0.71%	-0.95%	-1.57%	-2.41%	-2.26%	-3.00%	-2.05%	-1.78%	-2.65%	-3.01%	-0.60%
Max Decline		-2.62%	-7.50%	-6.67%	-10.06%	-14.05%	-9.22%	-6.86%	-5.55%	-14.81%	-13.93%	-3.50%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	6	6	7	8	6	7	7	8	7	4
2021 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		16	27	27	27	29	30	30	32	32	32	33
Closed Lower		9	11	13	14	11	11	10	17	15	10	14
Penetrated Low		7	7	7	7	5	5	5	12	9	8	5
Scenario Percentage		78%	64%	54%	50%	45%	45%	50%	71%	60%	80%	36%
Avg Max Decline		15.25%	19.59%	15.47%	13.14%	15.22%	9.79%	11.51%	9.54%	11.70%	12.89%	12.26%
Max Decline		35.28%	35.98%	25.74%	41.29%	45.49%	24.92%	23.65%	21.51%	34.02%	29.48%	22.95%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	19	16	13	17	7	19	18	13	16	21
Avg Max Increase		-1.42%	0.09%	-2.64%	-2.56%	-2.03%	-4.20%	-3.82%	-1.19%	-1.41%	-4.33%	-1.35%
Max Increase		-4.76%	-4.66%	-6.67%	-6.51%	-6.64%	-16.81%	-7.45%	-3.09%	-6.29%	-25.15%	-2.59%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	2	9	5	8	3	9	6	6	11	5
2021 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes					Yes
Action		No					No					Not Yet
High	48.63	46.44	48.61	51.51	55.15	63.36	66.77	66.49	68.51	74.18	75.87	74.52
Low	44.32	40.62	42.38	47.22	50.02	52.71	58.99	59.78	63.54	68.00	66.40	64.20
Close/Last	45.40	41.28	48.05	50.90	53.04	61.00	60.63	64.82	67.96	73.05	74.59	71.63