MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for November Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		15	26	26	26	28	29	29	31	31	31	32
Closed Higher		7	15	13	12	17	19	19	14	16	21	19
Exceeded High		6	13	12	11	16	18	17	10	15	20	11
Scenario Percentage		86%	87%	92%	92%	94%	95%	89%	71%	94%	95%	58%
Avg Max Increase		7.06%	7.96%	9.41%	11.37%	10.21%	10.87%	9.65%	10.84%	10.50%	15.27%	14.51%
Max Increase		11.88%	16.96%	19.75%	24.28%	25.20%	22.91%	34.75%	16.93%	20.97%	95.55%	50.87%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	14	15	14	17	17	14	18	17	17	21
Avg Max Decline		-0.71%	-0.90%	-1.56%	-2.57%	-2.22%	-3.00%	-2.05%	-1.96%	-2.77%	-2.46%	-0.60%
Max Decline		-2.62%	-7.50%	-6.67%	-10.06%	-14.05%	-9.22%	-6.86%	-5.55%	-14.81%	-13.88%	-3.50%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	6	6	7	8	6	7	7	8	6	4
2020 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		15	26	26	26	28	29	29	31	31	31	32
Closed Lower		8	11	13	14	11	10	10	17	15	10	13
Penetrated Low		7	7	7	7	5	5	5	12	9	8	5
Scenario Percentage		88%	64%	54%	50%	45%	50%	50%	71%	60%	80%	38%
Avg Max Decline		15.25%	19.59%	15.47%	13.14%	15.22%	9.79%	11.51%	9.54%	11.70%	12.89%	12.26%
Max Decline		35.28%	35.98%	25.74%	41.29%	45.49%	24.92%	23.65%	21.51%	34.02%	29.48%	22.95%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	19	16	13	17	7	19	18	13	16	21
Avg Max Increase		-1.42%	0.09%	-2.64%	-2.56%	-2.03%	-4.20%	-3.82%	-1.19%	-1.41%	-4.33%	-1.35%
Max Increase		-4.76%	-4.66%	-6.67%	-6.51%	-6.64%	-16.81%	-7.45%	-3.09%	-6.29%	-25.15%	-2.59%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	2	9	5	8	3	9	6	6	11	5
2020 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes	No
High	60.80	58.54	59.86	62.99	66.15	58.47	53.47	42.52	39.18	44.10	45.34	46.61
Low	55.65	55.11	57.16	57.61	54.77	49.51	32.44	27.33	30.49	37.94	41.24	43.26
Close/Last	56.08	56.30	57.16	61.62	55.25	50.14	36.40	32.10	38.93	41.56	43.85	45.28