MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for November Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		14	25	25	25	27	28	28	30	30	30	31
Closed Higher		6	14	12	12	17	19	19	13	15	20	18
Exceeded High		5	12	11	11	16	18	17	9	14	19	11
Scenario Percentage		83%	86%	92%	92%	94%	95%	89%	69%	93%	95%	61%
Avg Max Increase		6.09%	7.31%	9.59%	11.37%	10.21%	10.87%	9.65%	10.22%	10.38%	15.75%	14.51%
Max Increase		9.58%	16.96%	19.75%	24.28%	25.20%	22.91%	34.75%	16.93%	20.97%	95.55%	50.87%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	14	15	14	17	17	14	18	18	18	21
Avg Max Decline		-1.16%	-1.04%	-1.54%	-2.57%	-2.22%	-3.00%	-2.05%	-1.90%	-2.91%	-2.52%	-0.60%
Max Decline		-2.62%	-7.50%	-6.67%	-10.06%	-14.05%	-9.22%	-6.86%	-5.55%	-14.81%	-13.88%	-3.50%
Avg Days to Max Decline		2	6	6	7	8	6	7	7	8	6	4
2019 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		14	25	25	25	27	28	28	30	30	30	31
Closed Lower		8	11	13	13	10	9	9	17	15	10	13
Penetrated Low		7	7	7	6	4	4	5	12	9	8	5
Scenario Percentage		88%	64%	54%	46%	40%	44%	56%	71%	60%	80%	38%
Avg Max Decline		15.25%	19.59%	15.47%	8.45%	7.65%	6.01%	11.51%	9.54%	11.70%	12.89%	12.26%
Max Decline		35.28%	35.98%	25.74%	17.85%	12.38%	12.00%	23.65%	21.51%	34.02%	29.48%	22.95%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	19	16	12	16	4	19	18	13	16	21
Avg Max Increase		-1.42%	0.09%	-2.64%	-2.01%	-0.88%	-1.05%	-3.82%	-1.19%	-1.41%	-4.33%	-1.35%
Max Increase		-4.76%	-4.66%	-6.67%	-6.51%	-2.53%	-5.98%	-7.45%	-3.09%	-6.29%	-25.15%	-2.59%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	2	9	3	10	4	9	6	6	11	5
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No					Yes			Not Yet
High	78.74	82.03	73.57	62.68	62.95	67.02	67.41	72.38	70.45	65.31	66.90	64.05
Low	73.17	74.03	59.45	52.14	54.17	60.33	63.64	66.52	59.80	57.48	60.70	55.59
Close/Last	78.69	74.03	59.89	55.07	60.76	65.86	66.33	70.03	60.38	64.07	64.55	59.25