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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for October Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Dec 06, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years   19 30 30 30 33 33 33 35 35 35 35
Closed Higher   7 14 17 16 19 20 21 24 16 19 23
Exceeded High   6 10 14 15 15 19 19 20 12 18 18
Scenario Percentage   86% 71% 82% 94% 79% 95% 90% 83% 75% 95% 78%
Avg Max Increase   9.07% 7.28% 8.74% 11.03% 14.21% 11.78% 10.89% 10.38% 10.98% 9.96% 10.55%
Max Increase   19.36% 12.42% 17.15% 26.13% 42.60% 33.62% 23.63% 36.25% 17.06% 21.33% 55.97%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 14 12 18 14 16 16 15 18 14 14
Avg Max Decline   -0.45% -0.57% -1.62% -2.14% -2.50% -2.13% -2.98% -2.18% -1.91% -2.63% -1.17%
Max Decline   -2.32% -2.76% -8.31% -6.90% -10.00% -14.45% -9.23% -7.18% -6.28% -15.02% -3.59%
Avg Days to Max Decline   5 6 9 6 7 8 6 7 6 7 2
2024 Contract Condition   Yes       Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes  
Action   No       Yes Yes Yes No   Yes  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years   19 30 30 30 33 33 33 35 35 35 35
Closed Lower   12 15 13 14 14 12 12 11 19 16 12
Penetrated Low   9 13 9 7 6 6 5 6 13 11 7
Scenario Percentage   75% 87% 69% 50% 43% 50% 42% 55% 68% 69% 58%
Avg Max Decline   12.50% 13.22% 16.79% 15.74% 15.74% 15.37% 10.35% 11.59% 9.68% 11.48% 9.30%
Max Decline   43.76% 35.75% 36.49% 26.03% 43.02% 47.90% 26.63% 24.31% 22.08% 34.70% 20.09%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 17 16 16 14 19 7 19 16 13 13
Avg Max Increase   -0.62% -1.54% -0.24% -3.16% -3.01% -4.03% -4.95% -3.68% -1.33% -1.75% -0.94%
Max Increase   -6.92% -4.72% -7.13% -6.82% -6.61% -9.13% -17.72% -8.14% -3.38% -6.60% -3.25%
Avg Days to Max Increase   7 6 2 8 6 10 3 10 5 8 3
2024 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes         Yes   Yes
Action     Yes Yes No         Yes   Yes
High 81.93 85.72 85.24 83.05 79.40 81.09 80.28 83.84 88.44 83.85 85.34 87.05
Low 78.28 82.00 77.46 75.71 73.31 73.90 74.96 78.40 82.90 79.62 76.42 77.95
Close/Last 81.40 83.27 81.00 78.47 75.57 78.34 78.69 83.81 84.23 80.53 84.19 80.84

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