MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for October Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jun 30, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		14	25	25	25	28	28	28	30	30	30	30
Closed Higher		5	11	14	13	15	17	19	20	13	15	20
Exceeded High		5	8	12	12	12	16	18	18	9	14	16
Scenario Percentage		100%	73%	86%	92%	80%	94%	95%	90%	69%	93%	80%
Avg Max Increase		9.14%	6.77%	7.56%	8.89%	11.42%	10.53%	11.19%	9.74%	10.45%	10.64%	11.53%
Max Increase		19.36%	11.70%	17.15%	20.16%	24.61%	26.11%	23.63%	36.25%	16.52%	21.33%	55.97%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	13	13	18	14	17	17	15	20	17	16
Avg Max Decline		-0.47%	-0.99%	-1.67%	-2.31%	-2.57%	-2.33%	-3.11%	-2.08%	-2.07%	-3.17%	-1.00%
Max Decline		-2.32%	-2.76%	-8.31%	-6.90%	-10.00%	-14.45%	-9.23%	-7.18%	-6.28%	-15.02%	-3.49%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	3	10	7	8	9	6	6	7	8	2
2020 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		14	25	25	25	28	28	28	30	30	30	30
Closed Lower		9	13	11	12	13	10	9	10	17	15	10
Penetrated Low		7	12	7	7	5	4	4	6	12	10	6
Scenario Percentage		78%	92%	64%	58%	38%	40%	44%	60%	71%	67%	60%
Avg Max Decline		14.30%	13.53%	20.17%	15.74%	10.28%	7.65%	6.28%	11.59%	10.07%	11.27%	9.65%
Max Decline		43.76%	35.75%	36.49%	26.03%	19.07%	13.22%	12.35%	24.31%	22.08%	34.70%	20.09%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	17	19	16	14	18	4	19	17	13	14
Avg Max Increase		-0.59%	-1.45%	0.47%	-3.16%	-2.46%	-3.30%	-1.76%	-3.68%	-1.39%	-1.44%	-0.90%
Max Increase		-6.92%	-4.72%	-7.13%	-6.82%	-6.61%	-9.13%	-5.98%	-8.14%	-3.38%	-6.60%	-3.25%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	7	2	8	4	13	4	10	5	8	3
2020 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	No
High	58.91	61.17	58.73	60.10	63.46	66.70	58.61	53.43	41.78	38.79	43.98
Low	54.99	55.74	54.90	57.35	57.28	55.00	49.33	31.57	26.04	29.57	37.59
Close/Last	56.39	56.21	56.45	57.38	62.03	55.41	49.98	35.49	31.02	38.50	41.39