Moore Research Center, Inc.

  • Increase font size
  • Default font size
  • Decrease font size
Home MRCI Online
Print
New Windows

MRCI's Scenario Study

MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jul 11, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   26 30 30 30 33 33 33 35 35 35 35
Closed Higher   15 14 14 17 15 19 20 21 24 16 19
Exceeded High   13 12 10 14 14 15 19 19 20 13 15
Scenario Percentage   87% 86% 71% 82% 93% 79% 95% 90% 83% 81% 79%
Avg Max Increase   8.36% 8.44% 7.57% 9.04% 12.15% 14.66% 12.18% 10.80% 10.51% 10.64% 7.40%
Max Increase   28.15% 19.43% 12.89% 17.34% 26.64% 44.54% 35.06% 24.51% 37.42% 17.61% 14.00%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 12 15 12 18 15 16 16 15 19 16
Avg Max Decline   -1.36% -0.67% -1.30% -1.69% -1.82% -2.75% -2.33% -2.94% -2.38% -2.56% -1.40%
Max Decline   -4.60% -3.75% -3.54% -8.81% -7.13% -10.38% -14.85% -9.71% -7.61% -7.60% -4.09%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 4 5 6 6 5 8 7 7 7 4
2025 Contract Condition       Yes   Yes Yes   Yes   Yes Yes
Action       No   Yes No   Yes   Yes Not Yet
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   26 30 30 30 33 33 33 35 35 35 35
Closed Lower   11 16 16 13 18 14 13 14 11 19 16
Penetrated Low   8 13 15 9 10 6 6 7 6 13 9
Scenario Percentage   73% 81% 94% 69% 56% 43% 46% 50% 55% 68% 56%
Avg Max Decline   14.28% 11.42% 12.28% 17.25% 12.23% 16.36% 16.13% 9.63% 12.64% 10.03% 10.04%
Max Decline   41.98% 44.60% 36.28% 37.04% 26.30% 44.96% 51.03% 28.48% 24.86% 21.51% 18.49%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 12 17 16 16 14 20 9 20 16 19
Avg Max Increase   -1.71% -0.71% -2.29% -0.74% -3.49% -2.99% -4.18% -4.07% -4.04% -1.38% -1.47%
Max Increase   -8.93% -7.93% -6.26% -7.22% -7.84% -6.72% -9.39% -19.84% -8.73% -3.50% -5.25%
Avg Days to Max Increase   10 6 6 2 7 6 11 3 9 6 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes   Yes     Yes   Yes    
Action   Yes No   No     Yes   No    
High 80.87 77.40 74.14 77.48 74.01 72.82 76.69 74.85 72.85 73.22 65.86 79.40
Low 74.78 72.39 67.85 69.32 69.54 69.54 72.13 70.33 66.96 57.70 58.00 62.31
Close/Last 76.68 73.76 70.87 71.38 70.42 72.63 72.71 70.85 72.60 60.43 62.05 66.74

Banner

Newsflash

The world will still run for decades on fossil-fuel energy --- crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas.  Buy 'em?  Sell 'em?  When?

MRCI's newest special report is complete with seasonal patterns & weekly charts: for each delivery month and several spreads against each; for product spreads; for cash & basis; and for 3/2/1 and 2/1/1 crack spreads.  Better yet, this 284-page volume presents 190 seasonal & spread strategies to anticipate throughout the next 12-months. Order your copy today!