MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for September Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 21, 2022 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun |
| Tested Years | 23 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | |
| Closed Higher | 14 | 12 | 12 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 21 | 15 | 17 | |
| Exceeded High | 12 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 12 | 13 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 86% | 92% | 75% | 88% | 93% | 81% | 94% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 76% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 8.58% | 8.33% | 7.66% | 9.04% | 11.04% | 12.91% | 10.83% | 11.09% | 10.13% | 10.76% | 7.25% | |
| Max Increase | 28.15% | 19.43% | 12.89% | 17.34% | 25.66% | 27.12% | 27.55% | 24.51% | 37.42% | 17.61% | 13.60% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 14 | 12 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 19 | 16 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -1.47% | -0.85% | -1.42% | -1.69% | -1.91% | -2.70% | -2.58% | -3.07% | -2.26% | -2.59% | -1.52% | |
| Max Decline | -4.60% | -3.75% | -3.54% | -8.81% | -7.13% | -10.38% | -14.85% | -9.71% | -7.61% | -7.60% | -4.09% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 7 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 4 | |
| 2021 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||
| Action | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
