MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		20	24	24	24	27	27	27	29	29	29	29
Closed Higher		12	11	11	14	12	14	16	18	19	13	14
Exceeded High		11	10	8	12	11	11	15	17	18	10	10
Scenario Percentage		92%	91%	73%	86%	92%	79%	94%	94%	95%	77%	71%
Avg Max Increase		8.41%	8.74%	7.01%	7.81%	10.01%	11.77%	10.86%	11.15%	9.85%	9.97%	7.71%
Max Increase		28.15%	19.43%	11.95%	17.34%	21.37%	24.34%	27.55%	24.51%	37.42%	16.11%	14.00%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	13	15	13	18	14	17	15	15	21	17
Avg Max Decline		-1.43%	-0.94%	-1.60%	-1.74%	-1.91%	-3.07%	-2.50%	-3.27%	-2.25%	-2.88%	-1.44%
Max Decline		-4.60%	-3.75%	-3.54%	-8.81%	-7.13%	-10.38%	-14.85%	-9.71%	-7.61%	-7.60%	-3.19%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	4	6	7	6	6	9	8	6	8	4
2018 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	No	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		20	24	24	24	27	27	27	29	29	29	29
Closed Lower		8	13	13	10	15	13	11	11	10	16	15
Penetrated Low		6	11	12	6	10	5	4	6	6	11	8
Scenario Percentage		75%	85%	92%	60%	67%	38%	36%	55%	60%	69%	53%
Avg Max Decline		16.39%	12.09%	11.61%	21.75%	12.23%	10.64%	7.93%	6.49%	12.64%	10.98%	9.63%
Max Decline		41.98%	44.60%	36.28%	37.04%	26.30%	20.26%	13.85%	12.66%	24.86%	21.51%	18.49%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	14	18	18	16	13	20	7	20	18	19
Avg Max Increase		-0.96%	-0.69%	-2.34%	1.02%	-3.49%	-2.46%	-3.46%	-1.44%	-4.04%	-1.44%	-0.99%
Max Increase		-7.95%	-7.93%	-6.26%	-3.63%	-7.84%	-6.72%	-9.39%	-6.01%	-8.73%	-3.50%	-2.70%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	6	7	1	7	3	14	3	9	6	2
2018 Contract Condition								Yes
Action								No
High	54.00	53.62	56.72	59.15	62.38	65.01	68.68	68.14	69.03	74.47	80.07	79.56
Low	49.20	50.77	53.15	54.36	58.39	59.97	64.33	60.29	61.98	65.46	71.49	72.11
Close/Last	53.53	53.58	55.67	59.15	60.82	64.76	67.11	63.44	67.91	73.60	77.25	79.23