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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for August Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jul 11, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   20 31 31 31 34 34 34 35 36 36 36
Closed Higher   13 16 14 15 16 16 19 21 22 23 17
Exceeded High   11 13 11 10 13 15 16 20 20 19 13
Scenario Percentage   85% 81% 79% 67% 81% 94% 84% 95% 91% 83% 76%
Avg Max Increase   5.96% 9.68% 9.34% 7.89% 9.20% 11.98% 14.26% 12.53% 10.72% 9.07% 10.82%
Max Increase   10.49% 28.49% 19.59% 13.45% 17.55% 27.38% 46.93% 36.50% 25.31% 29.07% 29.66%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 15 13 17 13 17 13 16 15 14 18
Avg Max Decline   -1.94% -1.26% -1.18% -1.65% -1.83% -1.82% -2.73% -2.37% -3.08% -2.78% -1.51%
Max Decline   -11.32% -4.99% -4.53% -3.52% -8.39% -8.13% -10.75% -15.31% -10.48% -8.63% -4.63%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 6 5 9 6 6 5 8 7 7 4
2025 Contract Condition         Yes   Yes Yes   Yes   Yes
Action         No   Yes No   Yes   Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   20 31 31 31 34 34 34 35 36 36 36
Closed Lower   7 15 17 16 18 18 15 14 14 13 19
Penetrated Low   6 10 13 14 14 10 7 7 7 6 13
Scenario Percentage   86% 67% 76% 88% 78% 56% 47% 50% 50% 46% 68%
Avg Max Decline   12.59% 12.97% 11.85% 13.51% 13.23% 12.69% 15.85% 17.30% 9.77% 13.98% 7.83%
Max Decline   25.96% 43.27% 45.40% 36.95% 37.65% 26.57% 47.25% 54.83% 30.37% 25.51% 14.22%
Avg Days To Max Decline   14 14 13 17 16 16 15 18 12 20 16
Avg Max Increase   1.16% -1.78% -1.14% -2.19% -2.01% -3.61% -3.33% -4.36% -4.96% -4.42% -1.59%
Max Increase   -0.96% -9.37% -6.99% -4.76% -10.66% -10.05% -6.85% -9.81% -23.36% -9.51% -3.62%
Avg Days to Max Increase   4 10 8 6 7 7 6 14 7 9 5
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes   Yes     Yes   Yes  
Action   Yes Yes No   No     Yes   No  
High 80.15 81.47 77.73 74.37 77.77 74.25 73.11 77.36 75.33 73.49 73.88 66.30
Low 74.25 74.92 72.61 67.94 69.41 69.67 69.69 72.57 70.71 67.28 57.78 58.20
Close/Last 79.37 76.99 73.99 70.93 71.53 70.60 72.94 73.17 71.30 73.25 60.67 62.78

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