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ScenarioSM Study for August Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2019 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May |
Tested Years | 13 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 29 | |
Closed Higher | 9 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 13 | |
Exceeded High | 8 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 9 | |
Scenario Percentage | 89% | 85% | 82% | 73% | 85% | 92% | 92% | 94% | 94% | 94% | 69% | |
Avg Max Increase | 5.89% | 9.92% | 9.89% | 7.32% | 7.77% | 10.17% | 11.18% | 11.21% | 11.60% | 8.12% | 8.40% | |
Max Increase | 10.49% | 28.49% | 19.59% | 12.62% | 17.55% | 21.87% | 25.00% | 29.20% | 25.31% | 29.07% | 13.65% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 13 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 13 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 16 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.15% | -1.36% | -1.34% | -2.00% | -1.93% | -2.06% | -3.01% | -2.54% | -3.47% | -2.65% | -1.67% | |
Max Decline | -7.71% | -4.99% | -4.53% | -3.52% | -8.39% | -8.13% | -10.75% | -15.31% | -10.48% | -8.63% | -4.63% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 7 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 4 | |
2018 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Not Yet |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.