MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		20	20	20	23	23	23	24	25	25	25	25
Closed Higher		10	9	9	11	10	12	15	16	15	11	13
Exceeded High		9	7	7	9	9	11	15	15	14	8	11
Scenario Percentage		90%	78%	78%	82%	90%	92%	100%	94%	93%	73%	85%
Avg Max Increase		9.44%	10.09%	6.94%	6.84%	11.48%	11.93%	11.71%	10.39%	8.38%	10.89%	6.71%
Max Increase		28.49%	19.59%	12.62%	17.55%	21.87%	25.00%	29.20%	25.31%	29.92%	15.42%	10.97%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	15	15	13	18	11	17	14	14	14	12
Avg Max Decline		-1.27%	-1.22%	-2.10%	-2.10%	-2.19%	-2.35%	-1.69%	-3.15%	-2.32%	-1.62%	-1.53%
Max Decline		-4.99%	-4.53%	-3.52%	-8.39%	-8.13%	-10.75%	-4.33%	-10.48%	-8.63%	-4.63%	-3.95%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	6	13	7	7	6	8	9	7	6	4
2014 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		No		Yes	Yes	No		Yes			Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		20	20	20	23	23	23	24	25	25	25	25
Closed Lower		10	11	11	12	13	11	9	9	10	14	12
Penetrated Low		6	9	9	9	8	5	4	5	5	9	5
Scenario Percentage		60%	82%	82%	75%	62%	45%	44%	56%	50%	64%	42%
Avg Max Decline		14.57%	11.41%	11.61%	10.39%	10.45%	10.63%	8.23%	5.01%	13.72%	8.97%	5.09%
Max Decline		43.27%	45.40%	36.95%	26.67%	23.91%	21.89%	14.91%	12.61%	25.51%	14.22%	7.31%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	13	18	16	16	14	20	11	20	15	10
Avg Max Increase		-1.40%	-0.38%	-2.52%	-1.22%	-3.92%	-2.98%	-3.84%	-1.07%	-4.32%	-1.78%	-0.98%
Max Increase		-8.52%	-3.78%	-4.76%	-10.66%	-10.05%	-6.85%	-9.81%	-1.79%	-9.51%	-3.62%	-3.14%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	9	8	10	9	4	14	8	6	5	2
2014 Contract Condition			Yes				Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes				Yes		Yes	No
High	102.19	106.29	105.85	106.28	108.94	110.18	108.91	109.09	110.32	109.76	110.16	115.71
Low	98.24	100.25	102.02	102.28	101.89	106.16	103.57	103.18	104.60	103.57	105.79	107.11
Close/Last	101.90	104.52	102.41	105.31	107.60	108.47	104.13	107.50	107.00	106.96	108.68	112.36