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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jul 19, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   20 31 31 31 34 34 34 34 35 36 36
Closed Higher   14 21 15 14 16 16 16 18 21 22 23
Exceeded High   12 19 12 12 9 13 15 16 20 20 18
Scenario Percentage   86% 90% 80% 86% 56% 81% 94% 89% 95% 91% 78%
Avg Max Increase   7.06% 8.13% 9.97% 8.86% 8.36% 9.52% 12.31% 15.02% 13.25% 11.28% 6.58%
Max Increase   17.79% 21.34% 28.84% 20.55% 13.97% 17.99% 28.48% 51.85% 39.87% 26.78% 21.66%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 17 13 12 21 14 17 14 17 14 14
Avg Max Decline   -1.82% -1.15% -1.35% -1.31% -1.70% -2.04% -1.95% -2.83% -2.55% -3.30% -1.92%
Max Decline   -11.06% -11.67% -5.52% -4.92% -3.57% -8.71% -8.65% -11.14% -15.72% -11.90% -8.53%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 8 8 4 6 7 9 5 8 7 4
2025 Contract Condition   Yes       Yes   Yes Yes   Yes  
Action   Yes       No   Yes No   Yes  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   20 31 31 31 34 34 34 34 35 36 36
Closed Lower   6 10 16 17 18 18 17 15 14 14 13
Penetrated Low   4 10 10 12 16 14 10 8 7 8 6
Scenario Percentage   67% 100% 63% 71% 89% 78% 59% 53% 50% 57% 46%
Avg Max Decline   12.24% 9.82% 13.33% 13.31% 13.65% 13.82% 13.06% 15.26% 18.56% 10.45% 8.27%
Max Decline   28.05% 26.29% 43.96% 46.81% 38.13% 38.33% 26.91% 49.98% 59.68% 32.60% 11.87%
Avg Days To Max Decline   10 16 14 13 18 15 16 11 18 11 18
Avg Max Increase   -0.55% -0.32% -2.60% -1.39% -2.02% -1.99% -4.10% -2.93% -4.65% -5.10% -2.53%
Max Increase   -4.95% -9.00% -15.80% -8.68% -5.07% -11.24% -11.11% -6.98% -10.44% -29.16% -5.72%
Avg Days to Max Increase   7 12 9 8 6 6 10 5 14 7 3
2025 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes   Yes     Yes   Yes
Action     Yes Yes No   No     Yes   Not Yet
High 79.15 80.71 81.89 78.07 74.59 78.08 74.48 73.44 78.10 75.81 74.21 74.63
Low 76.85 74.31 75.15 72.77 67.88 69.38 69.80 69.85 73.02 71.10 67.61 58.00
Close/Last 77.59 79.75 77.29 74.21 70.98 71.67 70.77 73.25 73.67 71.79 73.97 61.06

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