MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		17	28	28	28	31	31	31	31	32	33	33
Closed Higher		12	19	14	13	14	15	15	15	20	20	21
Exceeded High		10	18	11	12	8	13	14	15	19	18	18
Scenario Percentage		83%	95%	79%	92%	57%	87%	93%	100%	95%	90%	86%
Avg Max Increase		6.83%	8.14%	10.32%	8.86%	8.51%	9.52%	12.72%	15.47%	13.28%	12.16%	6.70%
Max Increase		17.79%	21.34%	28.84%	20.55%	13.97%	17.99%	28.48%	51.85%	39.87%	26.78%	21.66%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	17	13	12	22	14	17	13	17	15	15
Avg Max Decline		-2.07%	-1.05%	-1.47%	-1.31%	-1.87%	-2.04%	-2.09%	-2.71%	-2.64%	-3.51%	-1.92%
Max Decline		-11.06%	-11.67%	-5.52%	-4.92%	-3.57%	-8.71%	-8.65%	-11.14%	-15.72%	-11.90%	-8.53%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	9	8	4	7	7	9	5	8	8	4
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		17	28	28	28	31	31	31	31	32	33	33
Closed Lower		5	9	14	15	17	16	15	15	12	13	12
Penetrated Low		3	9	8	12	15	13	10	8	5	8	6
Scenario Percentage		60%	100%	57%	80%	88%	81%	67%	53%	42%	62%	50%
Avg Max Decline		13.59%	9.56%	13.88%	13.31%	13.86%	14.31%	13.06%	15.26%	19.17%	10.45%	8.58%
Max Decline		28.05%	26.29%	43.96%	46.81%	38.13%	38.33%	26.91%	49.98%	59.68%	32.60%	13.69%
Avg Days To Max Decline		11	17	13	13	18	15	16	11	20	11	19
Avg Max Increase		0.05%	-0.25%	-3.20%	-1.39%	-1.97%	-2.06%	-4.10%	-2.93%	-4.90%	-5.10%	-2.53%
Max Increase		-4.95%	-9.00%	-15.80%	-8.68%	-5.07%	-11.24%	-11.11%	-6.98%	-10.44%	-29.16%	-5.72%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	12	11	8	6	7	10	5	11	7	3
2022 Contract Condition				Yes			Yes
Action				No			Yes
High	65.60	69.88	70.81	68.40	75.13	80.72	79.63	77.95	86.63	97.44	129.94	113.61
Low	61.78	65.72	64.02	62.00	67.14	73.11	65.93	64.70	75.20	84.08	92.59	97.18
Close/Last	65.02	69.08	70.19	68.08	73.75	78.13	67.42	75.84	85.57	92.90	102.73	107.14