MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for July Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Mar 31, 2020 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr |
| Tested Years | 14 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 30 | |
| Closed Higher | 9 | 17 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 18 | 19 | 19 | |
| Exceeded High | 7 | 16 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 17 | 18 | 16 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 78% | 94% | 85% | 92% | 58% | 85% | 92% | 100% | 94% | 95% | 84% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 7.05% | 8.32% | 10.32% | 8.81% | 7.73% | 8.04% | 10.38% | 11.66% | 11.87% | 12.04% | 6.34% | |
| Max Increase | 17.79% | 21.34% | 28.84% | 20.55% | 13.03% | 17.74% | 22.29% | 27.51% | 30.75% | 24.62% | 21.66% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 17 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 18 | 15 | 13 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -2.67% | -0.43% | -1.47% | -1.35% | -2.11% | -2.16% | -2.25% | -2.95% | -2.80% | -3.51% | -1.75% | |
| Max Decline | -11.06% | -7.84% | -5.52% | -4.92% | -3.57% | -8.71% | -8.65% | -11.14% | -15.72% | -11.90% | -8.53% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 13 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 3 | |
| 2020 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||||
| Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
