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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for June Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jul 11, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   27 31 31 31 33 34 34 35 35 36 36
Closed Higher   12 21 20 15 15 15 17 17 19 22 21
Exceeded High   12 19 17 11 13 9 14 16 17 19 18
Scenario Percentage   100% 90% 85% 73% 87% 60% 82% 94% 89% 86% 86%
Avg Max Increase   8.89% 8.89% 8.21% 11.29% 8.63% 8.26% 10.85% 12.56% 15.37% 14.10% 8.67%
Max Increase   17.73% 25.53% 16.40% 29.40% 20.85% 14.55% 23.40% 30.13% 55.71% 41.86% 20.26%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 17 19 15 12 19 15 18 15 15 16
Avg Max Decline   -1.39% -1.88% -1.98% -1.64% -1.56% -1.79% -2.26% -2.82% -2.83% -2.61% -1.67%
Max Decline   -5.67% -12.64% -12.14% -6.48% -7.38% -3.68% -9.05% -13.99% -11.97% -16.18% -7.59%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 5 8 9 5 4 6 8 5 7 2
2025 Contract Condition     Yes       Yes   Yes Yes   Yes
Action     Yes       No   Yes No   Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   27 31 31 31 33 34 34 35 35 36 36
Closed Lower   15 10 11 16 18 19 17 18 16 14 15
Penetrated Low   8 7 9 11 14 16 13 10 10 7 7
Scenario Percentage   53% 70% 82% 69% 78% 84% 76% 56% 63% 50% 47%
Avg Max Decline   7.57% 10.79% 11.29% 12.79% 13.25% 14.25% 15.49% 13.57% 16.44% 20.27% 13.00%
Max Decline   17.56% 29.33% 26.73% 44.80% 47.72% 39.33% 38.98% 27.20% 55.01% 67.78% 39.35%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 17 19 14 13 18 17 16 14 18 11
Avg Max Increase   -0.93% -1.26% -1.93% -3.37% -1.39% -2.42% -1.95% -4.46% -2.68% -4.71% -6.42%
Max Increase   -2.55% -5.45% -10.80% -16.88% -8.96% -5.87% -11.77% -11.85% -7.09% -10.78% -38.14%
Avg Days to Max Increase   4 7 13 11 4 6 7 10 8 17 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes Yes Yes   Yes     Yes  
Action   Yes   Yes Yes No   No     Yes  
High 82.86 79.94 81.14 82.35 78.39 74.91 78.40 74.71 73.76 78.96 76.26 75.04
Low 78.53 76.66 74.45 75.39 72.93 67.87 69.39 69.92 69.96 73.55 71.50 67.95
Close/Last 79.91 77.86 80.12 77.60 74.43 71.04 71.80 70.93 73.56 74.24 72.28 74.77

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