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ScenarioSM Study for June Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Sep 16, 2022 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar |
Tested Years | 24 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 33 | 33 | |
Closed Higher | 11 | 19 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 21 | 19 | |
Exceeded High | 11 | 17 | 16 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 16 | |
Scenario Percentage | 100% | 89% | 89% | 71% | 93% | 62% | 88% | 94% | 94% | 86% | 84% | |
Avg Max Increase | 8.92% | 8.95% | 8.21% | 11.77% | 8.63% | 8.37% | 10.85% | 12.90% | 15.78% | 14.07% | 9.16% | |
Max Increase | 17.73% | 25.53% | 16.40% | 29.40% | 20.85% | 14.55% | 23.40% | 30.13% | 55.71% | 41.86% | 19.49% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 18 | 20 | 16 | 12 | 20 | 15 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 16 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.42% | -2.01% | -1.92% | -1.80% | -1.56% | -1.96% | -2.26% | -3.01% | -2.71% | -2.69% | -1.69% | |
Max Decline | -5.67% | -12.64% | -12.14% | -6.48% | -7.38% | -3.68% | -9.05% | -13.99% | -11.97% | -16.18% | -7.59% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 7 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 2 | |
2022 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Not Yet |
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