MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		21	25	25	25	27	28	28	29	29	30	30
Closed Higher		9	16	16	13	13	11	14	13	15	19	18
Exceeded High		9	14	14	10	12	7	12	12	14	16	16
Scenario Percentage		100%	88%	88%	77%	92%	64%	86%	92%	93%	84%	89%
Avg Max Increase		8.52%	9.45%	8.43%	11.77%	8.55%	7.49%	9.61%	10.58%	11.94%	12.63%	9.32%
Max Increase		17.73%	25.53%	16.40%	29.40%	20.85%	14.23%	23.40%	23.61%	30.09%	31.91%	20.26%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	19	18	16	12	19	16	18	15	16	18
Avg Max Decline		-1.35%	-2.04%	-1.28%	-1.80%	-1.62%	-2.19%	-2.39%	-3.38%	-2.92%	-2.87%	-1.69%
Max Decline		-5.67%	-12.64%	-8.19%	-6.48%	-7.38%	-3.68%	-9.05%	-13.99%	-11.97%	-16.18%	-7.59%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	7	8	10	5	5	7	9	6	8	2
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		21	25	25	25	27	28	28	29	29	30	30
Closed Lower		12	9	9	12	14	17	14	16	14	11	12
Penetrated Low		6	6	7	8	12	14	11	10	8	4	6
Scenario Percentage		50%	67%	78%	67%	86%	82%	79%	63%	57%	36%	50%
Avg Max Decline		8.62%	10.79%	11.00%	14.23%	13.96%	15.17%	17.19%	13.57%	11.51%	9.88%	8.61%
Max Decline		17.56%	29.33%	26.73%	44.80%	47.72%	39.33%	38.98%	27.20%	25.33%	17.04%	14.25%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	17	22	14	15	19	18	16	11	20	9
Avg Max Increase		-0.88%	-0.90%	-2.41%	-2.42%	-1.30%	-2.31%	-1.77%	-4.46%	-2.45%	-4.06%	-1.14%
Max Increase		-2.55%	-5.45%	-10.80%	-10.12%	-8.96%	-5.87%	-11.77%	-11.85%	-7.09%	-10.78%	-1.66%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	7	15	13	4	7	8	10	4	19	1
2019 Contract Condition				Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				No			Yes	Yes	No
High	69.78	75.99	75.59	76.43	76.49	81.16	84.55	74.97	64.37	63.15	67.77	68.48
Low	62.59	67.56	69.70	70.28	70.40	73.87	74.50	58.68	51.09	53.35	60.62	63.99
Close/Last	69.07	73.89	75.22	73.43	75.85	80.59	74.95	59.94	54.57	61.02	66.33	67.58