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ScenarioSM Study for June Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2019 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar |
Tested Years | 20 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 29 | |
Closed Higher | 8 | 15 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 18 | 17 | |
Exceeded High | 8 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 15 | |
Scenario Percentage | 100% | 87% | 88% | 75% | 92% | 64% | 86% | 92% | 93% | 83% | 88% | |
Avg Max Increase | 9.15% | 10.05% | 8.43% | 11.80% | 8.88% | 7.49% | 9.61% | 10.58% | 11.92% | 12.54% | 9.15% | |
Max Increase | 17.73% | 25.53% | 16.40% | 29.40% | 20.85% | 14.23% | 23.40% | 23.61% | 30.09% | 31.91% | 20.26% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 17 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 13 | 19 | 16 | 18 | 14 | 15 | 17 | |
Avg Max Decline | -0.81% | -1.69% | -1.28% | -1.70% | -1.74% | -2.19% | -2.39% | -3.38% | -3.09% | -2.83% | -1.80% | |
Max Decline | -2.68% | -12.64% | -8.19% | -6.48% | -7.38% | -3.68% | -9.05% | -13.99% | -11.97% | -16.18% | -7.59% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 2 | |
2018 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.