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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jul 14, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   20 30 31 31 34 34 34 35 35 36 36
Closed Higher   14 14 21 20 18 16 16 16 17 21 22
Exceeded High   10 13 19 18 14 13 10 14 16 18 18
Scenario Percentage   71% 93% 90% 90% 78% 81% 63% 88% 94% 86% 82%
Avg Max Increase   12.09% 8.60% 8.83% 8.15% 9.61% 8.91% 8.50% 11.15% 13.61% 16.92% 10.57%
Max Increase   32.73% 16.30% 24.89% 17.56% 29.43% 21.10% 15.07% 23.89% 32.98% 58.37% 42.01%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 16 16 17 14 13 19 15 18 14 15
Avg Max Decline   -1.36% -0.87% -1.50% -1.94% -1.33% -1.53% -1.63% -2.27% -2.86% -2.90% -1.51%
Max Decline   -5.39% -5.44% -11.46% -12.32% -7.43% -8.00% -3.80% -9.12% -13.71% -12.55% -4.76%
Avg Days to Max Decline   11 7 6 7 8 4 6 6 8 7 4
2025 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes       Yes   Yes Yes  
Action   No   Yes       No   Yes No  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   20 30 31 31 34 34 34 35 35 36 36
Closed Lower   6 16 10 11 16 18 18 19 18 15 14
Penetrated Low   3 8 7 9 12 14 15 15 10 10 7
Scenario Percentage   50% 50% 70% 82% 75% 78% 83% 79% 56% 67% 50%
Avg Max Decline   11.82% 7.80% 10.83% 11.31% 11.81% 12.94% 15.53% 16.57% 14.11% 17.61% 14.96%
Max Decline   19.99% 17.98% 29.83% 27.01% 45.15% 48.62% 40.58% 39.59% 27.46% 61.63% 56.41%
Avg Days To Max Decline   20 17 15 17 18 15 19 16 16 14 18
Avg Max Increase   -1.22% -0.66% -0.75% -1.97% -3.32% -1.92% -2.28% -2.96% -4.65% -2.79% -3.09%
Max Increase   -3.24% -1.98% -5.47% -11.39% -16.92% -9.15% -6.78% -15.55% -12.81% -7.28% -8.52%
Avg Days to Max Increase   9 4 5 13 13 10 4 9 10 8 7
2025 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes Yes Yes   Yes     Yes
Action     Yes   Yes Yes No   No     Yes
High 79.81 83.40 80.27 81.52 82.80 78.71 75.09 78.73 74.93 74.09 79.98 76.78
Low 75.84 78.91 76.99 74.71 75.64 73.14 67.87 69.41 70.03 70.09 73.92 71.92
Close/Last 79.81 80.31 78.13 80.52 77.92 74.66 71.08 71.92 71.08 73.88 74.92 72.81

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