MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		17	27	28	28	31	31	31	32	32	33	33
Closed Higher		11	13	19	18	17	15	14	16	16	19	21
Exceeded High		9	12	17	17	13	13	9	14	15	17	17
Scenario Percentage		82%	92%	89%	94%	76%	87%	64%	88%	94%	89%	81%
Avg Max Increase		11.72%	8.64%	8.86%	8.12%	9.82%	8.91%	8.61%	11.15%	13.97%	17.37%	10.80%
Max Increase		32.73%	16.30%	24.89%	17.56%	29.43%	21.10%	15.07%	23.89%	32.98%	58.37%	42.01%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	17	17	17	14	13	21	15	18	14	15
Avg Max Decline		-1.34%	-1.01%	-1.60%	-1.88%	-1.43%	-1.53%	-1.77%	-2.27%	-3.05%	-2.78%	-1.52%
Max Decline		-5.39%	-5.44%	-11.46%	-12.32%	-7.43%	-8.00%	-3.80%	-9.12%	-13.71%	-12.55%	-4.76%
Avg Days to Max Decline		11	7	6	8	8	4	6	6	8	7	4
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		17	27	28	28	31	31	31	32	32	33	33
Closed Lower		6	14	9	10	14	16	17	16	16	14	12
Penetrated Low		3	7	6	8	10	14	14	13	10	9	5
Scenario Percentage		50%	50%	67%	80%	71%	88%	82%	81%	63%	64%	42%
Avg Max Decline		11.82%	8.28%	10.79%	11.11%	11.89%	12.94%	15.80%	17.53%	14.11%	17.60%	16.52%
Max Decline		19.99%	17.98%	29.83%	27.01%	45.15%	48.62%	40.58%	39.59%	27.46%	61.63%	56.41%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	19	15	18	18	15	19	16	16	13	20
Avg Max Increase		-1.22%	-0.69%	-0.36%	-2.09%	-3.90%	-1.92%	-2.23%	-3.18%	-4.65%	-2.90%	-3.30%
Max Increase		-3.24%	-1.98%	-5.47%	-11.39%	-16.92%	-9.15%	-6.78%	-15.55%	-12.81%	-7.28%	-8.52%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	4	5	13	15	10	4	10	10	5	7
2022 Contract Condition						Yes			Yes
Action						No			Yes
High	62.74	63.85	66.12	70.99	71.98	70.88	76.33	82.15	81.21	79.10	88.86	102.26
Low	58.00	59.25	62.14	66.35	64.09	62.27	67.78	74.14	66.63	65.10	76.18	86.31
Close/Last	58.67	62.67	65.62	69.88	71.02	68.80	74.84	79.63	68.21	76.90	87.85	97.97