MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		12	22	23	23	26	26	26	27	27	28	28
Closed Higher		8	10	15	15	15	12	11	13	12	15	18
Exceeded High		7	9	13	14	12	10	7	11	11	13	14
Scenario Percentage		88%	90%	87%	93%	80%	83%	64%	85%	92%	87%	78%
Avg Max Increase		11.69%	8.70%	9.95%	8.33%	9.68%	8.78%	7.45%	9.49%	12.04%	14.62%	9.06%
Max Increase		32.73%	16.30%	24.89%	17.56%	29.43%	21.10%	14.65%	23.89%	24.67%	32.80%	21.83%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	18	18	15	15	13	19	15	18	13	15
Avg Max Decline		-1.23%	-0.66%	-1.45%	-0.93%	-1.32%	-1.56%	-2.02%	-2.45%	-3.66%	-2.60%	-1.40%
Max Decline		-5.39%	-3.56%	-11.46%	-8.19%	-7.43%	-8.00%	-3.80%	-9.12%	-13.71%	-12.55%	-4.76%
Avg Days to Max Decline		11	7	7	6	9	5	8	7	10	8	4
2017 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		12	22	23	23	26	26	26	27	27	28	28
Closed Lower		4	12	8	8	11	14	15	14	15	13	10
Penetrated Low		2	5	6	7	9	12	12	11	10	8	4
Scenario Percentage		50%	42%	75%	88%	82%	86%	80%	79%	67%	62%	40%
Avg Max Decline		12.33%	9.18%	10.79%	10.94%	12.73%	13.56%	15.35%	18.92%	14.11%	12.10%	6.54%
Max Decline		19.99%	17.98%	29.83%	27.01%	45.15%	48.62%	40.58%	39.59%	27.46%	26.99%	17.82%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	22	15	19	20	17	20	17	16	11	18
Avg Max Increase		-0.20%	-1.05%	-0.36%	-2.50%	-2.45%	-1.92%	-2.30%	-2.65%	-4.65%	-2.56%	-1.99%
Max Increase		-0.21%	-1.98%	-5.47%	-11.39%	-11.11%	-9.15%	-6.78%	-15.55%	-12.81%	-7.28%	-4.89%
Avg Days to Max Increase		2	5	5	15	15	11	5	11	10	3	9
2017 Contract Condition					Yes			Yes			Yes
Action					Yes			Yes			Yes
High	46.88	50.30	52.76	54.69	54.01	53.54	52.57	55.93	54.00	59.09	59.53	57.74
Low	42.85	41.92	47.22	49.92	45.81	44.85	47.71	50.76	46.82	53.12	54.72	54.74
Close/Last	45.10	49.91	52.27	52.67	46.81	49.22	52.51	50.94	53.52	58.04	55.91	56.51