MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		16	26	27	27	29	30	30	31	32	32	32
Closed Higher		11	17	12	18	18	17	17	13	17	17	17
Exceeded High		10	13	11	16	18	12	13	9	16	16	13
Scenario Percentage		91%	76%	92%	89%	100%	71%	76%	69%	94%	94%	76%
Avg Max Increase		10.16%	9.83%	8.91%	9.68%	8.21%	11.07%	9.07%	8.99%	11.08%	12.43%	10.07%
Max Increase		18.62%	32.37%	17.73%	26.05%	19.09%	29.92%	21.56%	15.49%	23.87%	30.64%	23.00%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	12	16	17	18	17	11	21	15	17	19
Avg Max Decline		-0.39%	-0.88%	-1.74%	-1.99%	-1.91%	-1.91%	-1.66%	-1.82%	-2.45%	-3.98%	-1.86%
Max Decline		-6.95%	-5.27%	-5.94%	-12.99%	-12.66%	-8.52%	-8.77%	-4.02%	-9.20%	-17.83%	-6.96%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	5	10	5	6	6	5	6	6	10	4
2021 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		16	26	27	27	29	30	30	31	32	32	32
Closed Lower		5	9	15	9	10	13	13	18	15	15	15
Penetrated Low		3	4	11	6	9	10	11	16	12	10	7
Scenario Percentage		60%	44%	73%	67%	90%	77%	85%	89%	80%	67%	47%
Avg Max Decline		9.44%	9.94%	7.41%	11.17%	9.71%	12.12%	14.84%	16.47%	19.35%	14.68%	11.08%
Max Decline		17.76%	20.66%	18.43%	30.53%	27.27%	45.74%	49.60%	42.24%	40.21%	27.77%	17.78%
Avg Days To Max Decline		10	19	15	16	18	18	14	17	18	15	15
Avg Max Increase		-4.52%	-3.12%	-1.21%	-0.95%	-2.67%	-4.37%	-1.81%	-2.53%	-3.35%	-5.13%	-2.83%
Max Increase		-8.51%	-5.85%	-3.72%	-5.52%	-12.39%	-17.00%	-9.45%	-9.01%	-14.34%	-14.29%	-7.51%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	11	7	7	15	14	7	6	11	7	5
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	No					Yes	Yes
High	57.88	53.48	42.22	41.05	44.78	46.31	48.17	47.82	44.90	49.01	52.44	57.31
Low	50.86	35.71	32.00	33.72	39.48	42.28	44.97	41.79	38.55	37.36	46.84	50.66
Close/Last	50.86	38.91	35.39	40.98	42.61	45.33	46.99	43.78	39.28	48.03	51.82	55.04