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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Tested Years   13 23 24 24 26 27 27 28 29 29 29
Closed Higher   9 15 10 15 16 15 15 12 15 15 15
Exceeded High   8 12 9 13 16 11 12 8 14 14 11
Scenario Percentage   89% 80% 90% 87% 100% 73% 80% 67% 93% 93% 73%
Avg Max Increase   9.60% 9.88% 9.07% 10.49% 8.45% 11.02% 9.41% 8.17% 9.88% 11.63% 8.79%
Max Increase   18.62% 32.37% 17.73% 26.05% 19.09% 29.92% 21.56% 15.12% 23.87% 26.35% 18.46%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 12 17 18 17 18 12 19 15 17 18
Avg Max Decline   -0.32% -0.76% -1.06% -1.91% -1.30% -1.83% -1.77% -2.01% -2.59% -4.27% -2.07%
Max Decline   -6.95% -5.27% -3.56% -12.99% -8.42% -8.52% -8.77% -4.02% -9.20% -17.83% -6.96%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 6 9 5 7 6 5 6 6 11 4
2018 Contract Condition           Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Action           Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Not Yet
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Tested Years   13 23 24 24 26 27 27 28 29 29 29
Closed Lower   4 8 14 9 9 12 12 16 14 14 14
Penetrated Low   2 4 10 6 8 9 10 14 11 10 6
Scenario Percentage   50% 50% 71% 67% 89% 75% 83% 88% 79% 71% 43%
Avg Max Decline   5.29% 9.94% 7.70% 11.17% 10.39% 12.97% 14.86% 16.13% 19.71% 14.68% 11.89%
Max Decline   8.38% 20.66% 18.43% 30.53% 27.27% 45.74% 49.60% 42.24% 40.21% 27.77% 17.78%
Avg Days To Max Decline   4 19 16 16 18 20 15 18 17 15 16
Avg Max Increase   -2.52% -3.12% -1.18% -0.95% -2.82% -2.97% -1.74% -2.63% -2.99% -5.13% -3.26%
Max Increase   -5.27% -5.85% -3.72% -5.52% -12.39% -12.21% -9.45% -9.01% -14.34% -14.29% -7.51%
Avg Days to Max Increase   7 11 7 7 16 14 7 7 12 7 5
2018 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes          
Action   Yes Yes Yes No   No          
High 57.42 56.68 56.92 54.98 52.56 53.50 53.58 57.69 60.45 63.88 66.54 70.78
Low 55.74 51.54 52.70 49.54 46.71 48.11 50.11 52.42 54.47 59.35 60.78 65.82
Close/Last 56.60 54.07 53.05 51.97 50.48 53.34 53.19 56.21 60.24 62.07 66.44 68.89

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