MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Nov 30, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		21	24	24	25	27	27	28	28	30	30	30
Closed Higher		14	17	16	11	16	16	16	16	14	15	14
Exceeded High		13	16	14	10	14	15	12	13	10	14	12
Scenario Percentage		93%	94%	88%	91%	88%	94%	75%	81%	71%	93%	86%
Avg Max Increase		9.72%	9.59%	9.58%	8.56%	10.37%	9.58%	11.75%	9.48%	9.26%	10.17%	8.09%
Max Increase		20.68%	19.57%	34.33%	17.69%	27.26%	21.33%	30.49%	22.04%	15.29%	23.85%	16.23%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	18	13	16	18	19	16	13	21	16	16
Avg Max Decline		-1.90%	-2.41%	-1.31%	-1.90%	-2.04%	-1.39%	-1.94%	-1.77%	-1.84%	-2.72%	-1.49%
Max Decline		-13.01%	-8.68%	-5.58%	-6.14%	-13.38%	-8.95%	-10.08%	-9.44%	-4.38%	-9.25%	-6.48%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	9	6	9	6	7	6	5	10	6	4
2020 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes		No	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		21	24	24	25	27	27	28	28	30	30	30
Closed Lower		7	7	8	14	11	11	12	12	16	15	16
Penetrated Low		2	3	4	8	8	10	8	10	15	12	8
Scenario Percentage		29%	43%	50%	57%	73%	91%	67%	83%	94%	80%	50%
Avg Max Decline		7.83%	4.75%	10.32%	9.23%	9.88%	9.48%	14.85%	15.49%	17.70%	20.51%	16.86%
Max Decline		8.33%	11.16%	21.38%	19.16%	31.22%	27.63%	46.39%	50.65%	44.54%	40.79%	33.48%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	3	20	20	15	18	20	15	18	19	18
Avg Max Increase		-1.13%	-1.12%	-3.03%	-1.41%	-0.67%	-2.50%	-3.40%	-1.92%	-3.41%	-3.28%	-3.75%
Max Increase		-2.15%	-6.17%	-6.05%	-3.06%	-5.56%	-13.38%	-12.67%	-9.81%	-10.38%	-12.11%	-11.30%
Avg Days to Max Increase		18	5	11	6	6	14	17	5	6	11	5
2020 Contract Condition					Yes			Yes
Action					Yes			Yes
High	62.33	66.29	66.60	70.48	68.77	64.37	65.72	62.82	67.09	61.10	62.86	61.38
Low	56.64	60.80	63.53	66.70	59.14	56.89	59.94	55.04	55.55	54.88	58.13	60.08
Close/Last	60.53	65.35	65.63	68.60	59.65	63.16	63.22	57.41	57.56	58.34	59.85	60.23