MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		20	20	21	23	23	24	24	26	26	26	26
Closed Higher		15	13	9	14	15	13	13	12	13	12	14
Exceeded High		14	11	8	13	14	10	10	9	12	11	10
Scenario Percentage		93%	85%	89%	93%	93%	77%	77%	75%	92%	92%	71%
Avg Max Increase		8.33%	10.01%	9.62%	11.07%	9.65%	11.54%	9.75%	9.08%	9.95%	9.98%	5.69%
Max Increase		19.57%	34.33%	17.69%	27.26%	21.33%	30.49%	22.04%	15.29%	23.85%	18.75%	13.84%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	13	18	19	18	18	15	21	16	9	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.97%	-0.80%	-1.33%	-1.96%	-1.05%	-1.73%	-1.89%	-1.88%	-2.93%	-1.91%	-0.89%
Max Decline		-8.68%	-4.04%	-3.50%	-13.38%	-8.95%	-10.08%	-9.44%	-4.38%	-9.25%	-6.51%	-3.22%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	7	9	6	7	6	5	11	7	5	2
2015 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		20	20	21	23	23	24	24	26	26	26	26
Closed Lower		5	7	12	9	8	11	11	14	13	14	12
Penetrated Low		2	3	6	7	7	8	9	13	10	8	4
Scenario Percentage		40%	43%	50%	78%	88%	73%	82%	93%	77%	57%	33%
Avg Max Decline		1.54%	9.56%	7.32%	6.83%	9.70%	14.85%	15.87%	17.19%	18.96%	14.07%	6.42%
Max Decline		1.85%	21.38%	12.16%	14.24%	27.63%	46.39%	50.65%	44.54%	34.78%	33.48%	9.15%
Avg Days To Max Decline		2	19	18	14	20	20	15	18	18	13	8
Avg Max Increase		1.40%	-2.66%	-1.47%	-0.85%	-3.29%	-3.40%	-1.04%	-3.83%	-3.09%	-4.83%	-3.20%
Max Increase		1.23%	-6.05%	-3.06%	-5.56%	-13.38%	-12.67%	-4.07%	-10.38%	-12.11%	-12.91%	-7.74%
Avg Days to Max Increase		1	7	6	6	18	17	4	7	12	9	2
2015 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	No			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	105.20	105.49	105.62	106.23	111.38	109.83	107.51	104.83	97.94	87.91	73.92	59.41
Low	101.07	102.08	101.79	102.55	104.12	106.25	103.07	96.31	84.41	70.77	56.65	46.40
Close/Last	104.26	103.71	103.40	105.05	109.40	106.74	104.69	96.71	87.39	71.14	58.21	52.99