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ScenarioSM Study for February Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Aug 18, 2023 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov |
Tested Years | 17 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 34 | |
Closed Higher | 8 | 17 | 19 | 18 | 15 | 18 | 20 | 17 | 19 | 18 | 17 | |
Exceeded High | 8 | 16 | 18 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 13 | |
Scenario Percentage | 100% | 94% | 95% | 83% | 93% | 89% | 95% | 71% | 79% | 67% | 76% | |
Avg Max Increase | 11.66% | 10.67% | 9.90% | 10.86% | 8.94% | 9.31% | 9.48% | 12.21% | 9.39% | 10.07% | 8.56% | |
Max Increase | 29.61% | 22.17% | 20.51% | 33.83% | 17.60% | 22.05% | 24.00% | 31.02% | 22.44% | 15.99% | 12.96% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 20 | 17 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 19 | 16 | 13 | 19 | 20 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.16% | -1.66% | -2.37% | -1.46% | -1.84% | -2.14% | -2.82% | -2.20% | -2.44% | -1.70% | -1.48% | |
Max Decline | -8.94% | -12.94% | -8.86% | -5.89% | -6.13% | -13.67% | -13.19% | -11.24% | -10.89% | -4.71% | -4.04% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 4 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 3 | |
2023 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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