MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for February Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Aug 18, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		17	27	28	28	31	31	32	32	33	34	34
Closed Higher		8	17	19	18	15	18	20	17	19	18	17
Exceeded High		8	16	18	15	14	16	19	12	15	12	13
Scenario Percentage		100%	94%	95%	83%	93%	89%	95%	71%	79%	67%	76%
Avg Max Increase		11.66%	10.67%	9.90%	10.86%	8.94%	9.31%	9.48%	12.21%	9.39%	10.07%	8.56%
Max Increase		29.61%	22.17%	20.51%	33.83%	17.60%	22.05%	24.00%	31.02%	22.44%	15.99%	12.96%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	20	17	12	15	16	19	16	13	19	20
Avg Max Decline		-1.16%	-1.66%	-2.37%	-1.46%	-1.84%	-2.14%	-2.82%	-2.20%	-2.44%	-1.70%	-1.48%
Max Decline		-8.94%	-12.94%	-8.86%	-5.89%	-6.13%	-13.67%	-13.19%	-11.24%	-10.89%	-4.71%	-4.04%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	10	10	7	8	8	7	8	5	7	3
2023 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		17	27	28	28	31	31	32	32	33	34	34
Closed Lower		9	10	9	9	16	13	11	15	14	16	17
Penetrated Low		5	4	5	4	9	9	10	10	11	15	14
Scenario Percentage		56%	40%	56%	44%	56%	69%	91%	67%	79%	94%	82%
Avg Max Decline		12.78%	14.93%	8.13%	10.65%	9.12%	10.18%	11.22%	13.62%	16.02%	17.15%	13.50%
Max Decline		36.91%	40.28%	20.62%	21.89%	19.70%	31.89%	27.96%	47.35%	51.70%	47.31%	34.87%
Avg Days To Max Decline		13	15	7	20	17	17	20	20	14	16	15
Avg Max Increase		-2.83%	-1.68%	-3.50%	-3.18%	-1.02%	-1.99%	-2.92%	-3.06%	-2.13%	-2.36%	-2.44%
Max Increase		-5.67%	-5.38%	-13.15%	-6.31%	-2.46%	-9.35%	-14.85%	-13.51%	-10.14%	-4.75%	-8.69%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	11	3	12	3	10	17	14	5	3	3
2023 Contract Condition							Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action							Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes
High	74.02	80.84	88.15	104.10	102.14	105.86	111.34	100.15	97.82	92.73	94.85	97.85
Low	65.49	72.21	79.29	85.70	91.56	93.00	95.20	85.17	87.97	79.68	83.36	80.81
Close/Last	72.45	80.32	85.21	93.33	95.16	102.16	96.95	96.74	91.74	81.99	91.02	86.97