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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for February Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Aug 18, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   17 27 28 28 31 31 32 32 33 34 34
Closed Higher   8 17 19 18 15 18 20 17 19 18 17
Exceeded High   8 16 18 15 14 16 19 12 15 12 13
Scenario Percentage   100% 94% 95% 83% 93% 89% 95% 71% 79% 67% 76%
Avg Max Increase   11.66% 10.67% 9.90% 10.86% 8.94% 9.31% 9.48% 12.21% 9.39% 10.07% 8.56%
Max Increase   29.61% 22.17% 20.51% 33.83% 17.60% 22.05% 24.00% 31.02% 22.44% 15.99% 12.96%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 20 17 12 15 16 19 16 13 19 20
Avg Max Decline   -1.16% -1.66% -2.37% -1.46% -1.84% -2.14% -2.82% -2.20% -2.44% -1.70% -1.48%
Max Decline   -8.94% -12.94% -8.86% -5.89% -6.13% -13.67% -13.19% -11.24% -10.89% -4.71% -4.04%
Avg Days to Max Decline   4 10 10 7 8 8 7 8 5 7 3
2023 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes         Yes  
Action   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes         Yes  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   17 27 28 28 31 31 32 32 33 34 34
Closed Lower   9 10 9 9 16 13 11 15 14 16 17
Penetrated Low   5 4 5 4 9 9 10 10 11 15 14
Scenario Percentage   56% 40% 56% 44% 56% 69% 91% 67% 79% 94% 82%
Avg Max Decline   12.78% 14.93% 8.13% 10.65% 9.12% 10.18% 11.22% 13.62% 16.02% 17.15% 13.50%
Max Decline   36.91% 40.28% 20.62% 21.89% 19.70% 31.89% 27.96% 47.35% 51.70% 47.31% 34.87%
Avg Days To Max Decline   13 15 7 20 17 17 20 20 14 16 15
Avg Max Increase   -2.83% -1.68% -3.50% -3.18% -1.02% -1.99% -2.92% -3.06% -2.13% -2.36% -2.44%
Max Increase   -5.67% -5.38% -13.15% -6.31% -2.46% -9.35% -14.85% -13.51% -10.14% -4.75% -8.69%
Avg Days to Max Increase   6 11 3 12 3 10 17 14 5 3 3
2023 Contract Condition             Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes
Action             Yes Yes Yes No   Yes
High 74.02 80.84 88.15 104.10 102.14 105.86 111.34 100.15 97.82 92.73 94.85 97.85
Low 65.49 72.21 79.29 85.70 91.56 93.00 95.20 85.17 87.97 79.68 83.36 80.81
Close/Last 72.45 80.32 85.21 93.33 95.16 102.16 96.95 96.74 91.74 81.99 91.02 86.97

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