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ScenarioSM Study for February Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of May 10, 2021 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov |
Tested Years | 15 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 32 | |
Closed Higher | 6 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 19 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 17 | |
Exceeded High | 6 | 14 | 17 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 13 | |
Scenario Percentage | 100% | 93% | 94% | 81% | 92% | 88% | 95% | 71% | 78% | 69% | 76% | |
Avg Max Increase | 6.78% | 9.97% | 9.69% | 10.16% | 8.81% | 9.71% | 9.55% | 12.21% | 9.32% | 10.30% | 8.62% | |
Max Increase | 12.84% | 21.43% | 20.51% | 33.83% | 17.60% | 22.05% | 24.00% | 31.02% | 22.44% | 15.99% | 13.68% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 18 | 20 | 16 | 11 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 21 | 21 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.60% | -1.89% | -2.40% | -1.39% | -2.04% | -2.18% | -2.25% | -2.20% | -2.55% | -1.80% | -1.48% | |
Max Decline | -8.94% | -12.94% | -8.86% | -5.89% | -6.13% | -13.67% | -13.19% | -11.24% | -10.89% | -4.71% | -4.04% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 5 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 3 | |
2021 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
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