MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for February Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		12	22	23	23	26	26	27	27	28	29	29
Closed Higher		4	14	16	14	11	14	17	15	16	15	15
Exceeded High		4	13	15	12	10	12	16	11	13	10	11
Scenario Percentage		100%	93%	94%	86%	91%	86%	94%	73%	81%	67%	73%
Avg Max Increase		7.10%	10.08%	9.25%	10.21%	8.79%	10.63%	9.90%	12.26%	9.66%	9.73%	8.06%
Max Increase		12.84%	21.43%	20.51%	33.83%	17.60%	22.05%	24.00%	31.02%	22.44%	15.81%	12.93%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	19	15	11	17	18	19	17	13	20	20
Avg Max Decline		-0.20%	-1.81%	-2.52%	-1.29%	-1.52%	-2.12%	-1.64%	-2.14%	-2.73%	-1.95%	-1.52%
Max Decline		-1.22%	-12.94%	-8.86%	-5.89%	-3.72%	-13.67%	-9.19%	-11.24%	-10.89%	-4.71%	-4.04%
Avg Days to Max Decline		2	10	10	7	8	10	7	8	5	8	4
2017 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		12	22	23	23	26	26	27	27	28	29	29
Closed Lower		8	8	7	8	15	12	9	12	12	14	14
Penetrated Low		4	3	4	4	8	8	8	9	10	13	11
Scenario Percentage		50%	38%	57%	50%	53%	67%	89%	75%	83%	93%	79%
Avg Max Decline		6.75%	6.49%	5.01%	10.65%	9.68%	9.93%	11.26%	13.67%	16.04%	16.80%	14.03%
Max Decline		14.86%	9.89%	11.34%	21.89%	19.70%	31.89%	27.96%	47.35%	51.70%	47.31%	34.87%
Avg Days To Max Decline		12	12	4	20	19	17	20	19	15	16	16
Avg Max Increase		-2.12%	-0.45%	-1.09%	-3.18%	-0.95%	-1.82%	-3.32%	-3.28%	-2.06%	-2.44%	-1.73%
Max Increase		-5.42%	-2.07%	-5.87%	-6.31%	-2.46%	-9.35%	-14.85%	-13.51%	-10.14%	-4.75%	-8.69%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	13	4	12	4	10	16	15	5	4	3
2017 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes					Yes			Yes
Action		No	No					Yes			Yes
High	52.08	45.34	41.78	45.84	50.09	52.55	54.46	53.14	52.64	51.46	54.82	52.37
Low	44.11	34.71	37.10	41.51	40.53	46.36	49.24	44.50	43.46	46.51	49.14	44.67
Close/Last	45.51	42.39	41.59	43.99	49.26	51.68	51.82	45.54	48.09	51.25	49.30	51.84