MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		16	27	27	27	30	30	30	32	32	32	33
Closed Higher		8	13	17	18	20	14	18	22	18	18	17
Exceeded High		6	12	16	17	17	13	16	21	13	14	9
Scenario Percentage		75%	92%	94%	94%	85%	93%	89%	95%	72%	78%	53%
Avg Max Increase		11.39%	11.88%	10.01%	10.14%	10.14%	9.19%	9.31%	12.97%	15.85%	9.33%	6.50%
Max Increase		22.43%	25.18%	22.49%	21.59%	33.70%	17.40%	18.83%	79.27%	47.85%	22.95%	11.63%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	14	21	18	16	17	16	19	15	13	17
Avg Max Decline		-0.93%	-2.02%	-2.27%	-2.80%	-1.77%	-1.94%	-2.29%	-2.76%	-2.02%	-3.37%	-1.87%
Max Decline		-6.27%	-9.46%	-13.58%	-9.03%	-6.16%	-6.31%	-14.00%	-13.44%	-12.35%	-11.87%	-5.06%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	5	12	7	8	7	7	7	7	5	3
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		16	27	27	27	30	30	30	32	32	32	33
Closed Lower		8	14	10	9	10	16	12	10	14	14	16
Penetrated Low		5	7	4	5	5	10	8	8	9	11	13
Scenario Percentage		63%	50%	40%	56%	50%	63%	67%	80%	64%	79%	81%
Avg Max Decline		17.74%	12.03%	15.57%	8.73%	10.43%	9.71%	10.39%	12.01%	14.22%	16.59%	13.22%
Max Decline		24.71%	38.36%	41.78%	21.90%	22.43%	20.32%	32.60%	28.31%	48.27%	52.96%	29.41%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	13	16	12	19	18	15	19	20	14	19
Avg Max Increase		-1.39%	-1.81%	-3.75%	-4.41%	-3.34%	-1.38%	-0.68%	-4.09%	-3.11%	-2.22%	-2.43%
Max Increase		-4.66%	-5.73%	-6.23%	-15.43%	-7.20%	-3.31%	-5.68%	-23.15%	-14.60%	-10.46%	-6.30%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	5	15	6	10	5	6	11	12	5	4
2022 Contract Condition					Yes					Yes
Action					No					No
High	48.79	51.27	54.39	61.96	65.55	65.58	67.75	72.91	74.26	73.02	79.13	85.77
Low	42.81	47.23	50.10	53.66	58.51	59.21	62.85	67.10	65.44	63.32	69.33	76.78
Close/Last	48.03	50.61	52.56	60.20	59.86	63.94	67.05	71.77	73.08	70.46	77.53	83.72