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ScenarioSM Study for January Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of May 10, 2021 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct |
Tested Years | 15 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 32 | |
Closed Higher | 7 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 13 | 17 | 21 | 18 | 17 | 16 | |
Exceeded High | 5 | 11 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 12 | 15 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 9 | |
Scenario Percentage | 71% | 92% | 94% | 94% | 84% | 92% | 88% | 95% | 72% | 76% | 56% | |
Avg Max Increase | 9.18% | 10.72% | 10.08% | 10.14% | 9.90% | 9.06% | 9.70% | 13.20% | 15.85% | 9.23% | 6.50% | |
Max Increase | 16.45% | 25.18% | 22.49% | 21.59% | 33.70% | 17.40% | 18.83% | 79.27% | 47.85% | 22.95% | 11.63% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 15 | 21 | 18 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 17 | |
Avg Max Decline | -0.91% | -2.40% | -2.24% | -2.80% | -1.77% | -2.11% | -2.35% | -2.23% | -2.02% | -3.55% | -1.87% | |
Max Decline | -6.27% | -9.46% | -13.58% | -9.03% | -6.16% | -6.31% | -14.00% | -13.44% | -12.35% | -11.87% | -5.06% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 7 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | |
2021 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.