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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September British Pound(CME) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   30 32 35 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   14 11 19 18 22 22 31 15 27 24 19
Exceeded High   10 10 11 13 15 19 22 13 21 17 14
Scenario Percentage   71% 91% 58% 72% 68% 86% 71% 87% 78% 71% 74%
Avg Max Increase   3.66% 4.05% 3.55% 2.95% 3.81% 3.66% 3.64% 5.98% 4.20% 2.94% 2.23%
Max Increase   6.62% 9.04% 7.13% 8.91% 9.44% 12.83% 12.95% 12.65% 13.11% 10.35% 7.99%
Avg Days To Max Increase   17 18 18 16 18 18 21 21 18 10 9
Avg Max Decline   -0.77% -1.05% -0.51% -0.99% -1.09% -1.24% -1.52% -1.34% -0.74% -1.20% -0.29%
Max Decline   -2.44% -2.87% -1.75% -3.13% -2.55% -4.48% -9.39% -3.02% -3.08% -3.63% -1.60%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 10 7 9 8 6 12 7 9 7 4
2021 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes   Yes  
Action   Yes Yes Yes Yes No   Yes Yes   Not Yet  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   30 32 35 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   15 21 16 27 23 23 14 30 18 21 26
Penetrated Low   10 13 13 22 18 15 14 20 15 16 12
Scenario Percentage   67% 62% 81% 81% 78% 65% 100% 67% 83% 76% 46%
Avg Max Decline   3.46% 4.09% 4.79% 4.12% 3.83% 3.41% 4.91% 4.64% 3.20% 3.58% 2.42%
Max Decline   10.06% 12.22% 11.58% 13.77% 12.12% 8.21% 11.56% 12.29% 9.00% 11.74% 6.70%
Avg Days To Max Decline   20 21 19 18 18 17 16 14 12 11 7
Avg Max Increase   -0.83% -1.26% -0.63% -0.74% -1.26% -1.29% -0.80% -1.13% -0.94% -0.70% -0.31%
Max Increase   -4.68% -3.12% -5.20% -3.23% -4.15% -3.41% -2.18% -3.77% -3.47% -2.57% -1.04%
Avg Days to Max Increase   4 11 4 7 12 9 4 6 7 7 1
2021 Contract Condition             Yes     Yes   Yes
Action             Yes     Yes   Not Yet
High 134.74 131.90 134.15 136.87 137.74 142.36 140.22 140.14 142.36 142.53 139.85 139.59
Low 127.20 128.79 128.96 131.64 134.85 135.85 136.78 136.77 138.07 137.88 135.73 136.02
Close/Last 129.23 129.81 133.66 136.71 137.18 139.54 137.85 138.15 141.97 138.05 138.93 137.58

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