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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March British Pound(CME) as of Jul 11, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   33 35 40 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   24 10 22 24 17 25 23 19 22 17 20
Exceeded High   17 8 16 18 13 17 18 17 13 11 10
Scenario Percentage   71% 80% 73% 75% 76% 68% 78% 89% 59% 65% 50%
Avg Max Increase   2.98% 4.40% 3.28% 2.94% 3.44% 4.72% 4.33% 3.34% 3.30% 3.05% 2.32%
Max Increase   12.74% 12.78% 11.10% 6.15% 7.31% 13.69% 9.95% 8.88% 7.68% 6.15% 5.08%
Avg Days To Max Increase   20 18 16 15 13 17 15 20 19 10 9
Avg Max Decline   -1.35% -0.98% -0.77% -1.73% -0.51% -0.78% -0.91% -1.26% -0.84% -1.02% -0.59%
Max Decline   -4.03% -2.83% -2.84% -8.60% -2.75% -3.41% -2.84% -4.03% -1.88% -2.66% -2.36%
Avg Days to Max Decline   15 10 8 9 9 10 6 10 6 7 3
2025 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes Yes Yes         Yes
Action     Yes   Yes Yes No         Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   33 35 40 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   9 25 18 21 28 20 22 26 23 28 25
Penetrated Low   8 15 14 18 20 15 15 19 20 22 18
Scenario Percentage   89% 60% 78% 86% 71% 75% 68% 73% 87% 79% 72%
Avg Max Decline   3.46% 4.68% 3.32% 4.59% 4.05% 4.82% 3.75% 3.97% 4.32% 3.66% 2.32%
Max Decline   5.26% 12.12% 8.32% 14.96% 15.28% 18.14% 10.72% 12.29% 10.36% 8.09% 4.89%
Avg Days To Max Decline   17 17 13 17 15 19 19 19 15 11 8
Avg Max Increase   -0.61% -0.93% -0.71% -0.92% -1.01% -0.89% -1.23% -1.45% -1.03% -0.90% -0.42%
Max Increase   -2.18% -3.43% -3.25% -3.52% -3.22% -2.61% -4.65% -6.17% -5.49% -3.34% -3.16%
Avg Days to Max Increase   6 7 10 10 9 7 6 10 7 8 3
2025 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes       Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Action   No   No       Yes Yes Yes Not Yet  
High 128.89 127.37 128.16 128.72 130.54 132.64 134.08 133.68 130.32 128.05 125.70 127.15
Low 126.08 123.47 124.89 126.38 126.40 126.69 130.45 128.46 124.85 124.67 120.95 122.47
Close/Last 126.53 125.38 127.50 126.64 128.70 131.24 133.60 128.76 127.21 125.03 123.99 125.72

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