MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March British Pound(CME) as of Aug 18, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		32	34	39	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		23	10	21	24	18	25	24	19	23	18	21
Exceeded High		16	8	15	18	13	18	18	17	15	12	10
Scenario Percentage		70%	80%	71%	75%	72%	72%	75%	89%	65%	67%	48%
Avg Max Increase		3.05%	4.73%	3.27%	2.86%	3.99%	4.89%	4.33%	3.53%	3.21%	2.99%	2.08%
Max Increase		12.74%	12.78%	11.10%	6.15%	9.32%	13.69%	9.95%	8.88%	7.68%	6.15%	4.83%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	20	17	14	13	18	15	20	17	10	9
Avg Max Decline		-1.30%	-1.18%	-0.81%	-1.69%	-0.56%	-0.78%	-0.91%	-1.29%	-0.73%	-0.93%	-0.64%
Max Decline		-4.03%	-2.83%	-2.84%	-8.60%	-2.75%	-3.41%	-2.84%	-4.03%	-1.88%	-2.66%	-2.36%
Avg Days to Max Decline		15	8	8	9	8	10	6	10	6	7	3
2023 Contract Condition								Yes	Yes		Yes
Action								Yes	Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		32	34	39	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		9	24	18	21	27	20	21	26	22	27	24
Penetrated Low		9	15	14	18	19	15	15	18	19	22	17
Scenario Percentage		100%	63%	78%	86%	70%	75%	71%	69%	86%	81%	71%
Avg Max Decline		3.31%	4.68%	3.32%	4.59%	4.02%	5.13%	3.59%	3.92%	4.37%	3.57%	2.26%
Max Decline		5.26%	12.12%	8.32%	14.96%	15.28%	18.14%	10.72%	12.29%	10.36%	8.09%	4.68%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	17	13	17	16	19	18	20	15	11	7
Avg Max Increase		-0.58%	-0.93%	-0.71%	-0.92%	-1.04%	-0.89%	-1.17%	-1.49%	-1.06%	-0.88%	-0.32%
Max Increase		-2.18%	-3.43%	-3.25%	-3.52%	-3.22%	-2.61%	-4.65%	-6.17%	-5.49%	-3.34%	-3.16%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	7	10	10	9	7	6	10	7	8	3
2023 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Yes		Yes
High	133.52	132.01	127.47	126.55	123.09	123.59	117.73	116.88	121.89	124.79	124.62	124.14
Low	129.95	124.72	122.27	120.27	118.42	116.40	104.12	109.43	111.90	120.17	118.61	119.20
Close/Last	131.63	126.58	126.52	122.53	122.44	116.51	111.76	115.17	120.94	120.84	123.33	120.57