MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March British Pound(CME) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	20	22	27	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34
Closed Higher	12	8	13	17	16	20	18	15	20	14	17
Exceeded High	9	6	10	11	11	16	14	13	13	8	9
Scenario Percentage	75%	75%	77%	65%	69%	80%	78%	87%	65%	57%	53%
Avg Max Increase	2.76%	5.67%	3.09%	2.90%	4.54%	5.23%	4.29%	3.92%	3.30%	3.26%	2.21%
Max Increase	5.68%	12.78%	11.10%	5.71%	9.32%	13.69%	9.95%	8.88%	7.68%	6.15%	5.08%
Avg Days To Max Increase	22	21	20	17	16	17	16	19	17	11	10
Avg Max Decline	-0.69%	-1.35%	-0.69%	-1.81%	-0.67%	-0.63%	-0.87%	-1.39%	-0.42%	-0.76%	-0.43%
Max Decline	-2.57%	-2.83%	-2.84%	-8.60%	-2.75%	-3.41%	-2.53%	-4.03%	-1.29%	-2.61%	-1.03%
Avg Days to Max Decline	12	9	11	9	10	7	7	10	3	6	2
2009 Contract Condition	Yes		Yes
Action	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	20	22	27	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34
Closed Lower	8	14	14	17	18	14	16	19	14	20	17
Penetrated Low	8	9	10	14	11	11	11	11	12	15	13
Scenario Percentage	100%	64%	71%	82%	61%	79%	69%	58%	86%	75%	76%
Avg Max Decline	3.25%	5.02%	3.56%	4.17%	4.84%	6.15%	4.12%	4.22%	4.85%	3.23%	3.94%
Max Decline	6.46%	12.12%	8.32%	11.58%	15.28%	18.14%	10.72%	12.29%	10.36%	8.09%	11.65%
Avg Days To Max Decline	18	19	11	18	17	21	19	19	15	10	12
Avg Max Increase	-0.60%	-0.64%	-0.90%	-0.98%	-0.72%	-0.85%	-1.25%	-1.56%	-1.27%	-0.73%	-0.52%
Max Increase	-2.18%	-2.29%	-3.25%	-3.52%	-3.22%	-1.77%	-4.65%	-6.17%	-5.49%	-3.34%	-2.70%
Avg Days to Max Increase	6	5	9	11	7	8	7	8	7	6	4
2009 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet	Yes
High	195.51	194.68	195.60	197.70	195.06	185.05	178.42	162.98	157.00	153.56	149.79
Low	191.41	189.67	190.78	193.21	179.27	172.48	151.87	145.57	143.29	134.92	140.44
Close/Last	194.68	194.06	195.50	195.06	179.27	177.83	160.49	153.83	145.57	144.43	143.23