MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March British Pound(CME) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	18	20	25	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Higher	10	8	11	16	16	19	17	15	20	13	16
Exceeded High	7	6	8	11	11	15	13	13	13	7	8
Scenario Percentage	70%	75%	73%	69%	69%	79%	76%	87%	65%	54%	50%
Avg Max Increase	3.42%	5.67%	3.37%	2.90%	4.54%	5.34%	4.49%	3.92%	3.30%	3.34%	2.18%
Max Increase	5.68%	12.78%	11.10%	5.71%	9.32%	13.69%	9.95%	8.88%	7.68%	6.15%	5.08%
Avg Days To Max Increase	19	21	20	17	16	17	17	19	17	11	9
Avg Max Decline	-0.29%	-1.35%	-0.71%	-1.81%	-0.67%	-0.61%	-0.91%	-1.39%	-0.42%	-0.49%	-0.36%
Max Decline	-1.76%	-2.83%	-2.84%	-8.60%	-2.75%	-3.41%	-2.53%	-4.03%	-1.29%	-1.90%	-1.03%
Avg Days to Max Decline	7	9	12	9	10	6	7	10	3	4	2
2007 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action	Yes	No		Yes	No		Yes	Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	18	20	25	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Lower	8	12	14	16	16	13	15	17	12	19	16
Penetrated Low	8	8	10	13	10	10	10	9	10	15	12
Scenario Percentage	100%	67%	71%	81%	62%	77%	67%	53%	83%	79%	75%
Avg Max Decline	3.25%	5.57%	3.56%	3.60%	3.79%	4.95%	3.46%	3.13%	4.83%	3.23%	3.95%
Max Decline	6.46%	12.12%	8.32%	7.00%	13.37%	14.08%	5.96%	7.84%	10.36%	8.09%	11.65%
Avg Days To Max Decline	18	21	11	18	16	21	18	18	13	10	13
Avg Max Increase	-0.60%	-0.61%	-0.90%	-1.06%	-0.47%	-0.90%	-1.22%	-1.61%	-0.96%	-0.73%	-0.57%
Max Increase	-2.18%	-2.29%	-3.25%	-3.52%	-1.45%	-1.77%	-4.65%	-6.17%	-3.63%	-3.34%	-2.70%
Avg Days to Max Increase	6	5	9	12	6	9	7	7	8	6	4
2007 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes			Yes		Yes
Action			No			Yes			Yes		Yes
High	183.06	190.27	189.25	187.61	191.64	190.98	191.12	197.10	198.60	199.14	197.50
Low	173.90	183.65	182.38	182.95	187.23	186.58	185.40	188.49	194.40	192.65	193.85
Close/Last	183.06	187.89	185.84	187.61	190.85	187.39	190.90	196.70	195.72	196.38	196.37