MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		40	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	27	28	28	22	21	21	22	19	22	24
Exceeded High		17	25	28	24	17	16	16	16	16	16	11
Scenario Percentage		81%	93%	100%	86%	77%	76%	76%	73%	84%	73%	46%
Avg Max Increase		9.54%	8.25%	9.56%	12.21%	20.01%	21.35%	12.98%	11.85%	14.06%	10.31%	7.07%
Max Increase		34.01%	19.98%	36.60%	42.59%	76.62%	76.98%	54.52%	33.02%	36.63%	18.53%	24.21%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	17	18	19	18	18	20	19	19	15	7
Avg Max Decline		-2.19%	-1.54%	-1.99%	-2.64%	-3.00%	-1.74%	-4.38%	-2.31%	-3.02%	-1.15%	-0.72%
Max Decline		-6.55%	-6.13%	-6.20%	-8.20%	-8.54%	-6.99%	-19.47%	-7.72%	-10.63%	-5.25%	-2.06%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	7	8	13	6	8	10	8	3	3	2
2008 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		40	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		19	18	17	17	23	23	24	23	26	22	21
Penetrated Low		11	10	15	13	21	20	18	18	24	16	9
Scenario Percentage		58%	56%	88%	76%	91%	87%	75%	78%	92%	73%	43%
Avg Max Decline		7.17%	5.62%	5.89%	8.96%	8.34%	10.77%	7.55%	9.69%	8.43%	7.05%	4.25%
Max Decline		21.91%	14.93%	14.12%	14.38%	18.95%	26.61%	26.86%	43.45%	32.91%	16.96%	14.36%
Avg Days To Max Decline		10	15	17	19	22	18	16	17	17	15	7
Avg Max Increase		-2.09%	-1.67%	-2.53%	-1.84%	-2.15%	-2.74%	-3.08%	-3.32%	-1.86%	-4.82%	-1.80%
Max Increase		-6.94%	-4.22%	-6.22%	-4.65%	-6.12%	-13.58%	-9.86%	-14.88%	-7.63%	-19.67%	-3.69%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	5	13	4	9	9	9	8	4	7	3
2008 Contract Condition				Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
High	50.56	56.30	70.30	74.00	64.73	66.30	70.31	69.59	59.49	53.25	45.44	37.08
Low	45.63	50.30	55.35	53.13	50.16	56.84	61.76	58.31	50.41	43.52	30.65	29.84
Close/Last	50.33	55.22	70.00	53.13	59.34	62.91	67.75	59.50	54.20	44.48	33.60	32.58