MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2007
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	38	43	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	20	25	28	26	20	20	21	22	20	23	23
Exceeded High	16	23	27	22	15	16	16	16	17	16	11
Scenario Percentage	80%	92%	96%	85%	75%	80%	76%	73%	85%	70%	48%
Avg Max Increase	8.02%	8.24%	9.56%	11.95%	21.49%	21.33%	12.84%	11.85%	13.58%	9.88%	7.09%
Max Increase	16.50%	19.98%	36.60%	42.59%	76.62%	76.98%	54.52%	33.02%	36.63%	18.53%	24.21%
Avg Days To Max Increase	17	17	17	19	18	17	18	19	18	14	7
Avg Max Decline	-2.34%	-1.62%	-1.90%	-2.59%	-3.04%	-1.64%	-3.70%	-2.31%	-2.73%	-1.16%	-0.72%
Max Decline	-6.55%	-6.13%	-6.20%	-8.20%	-8.54%	-6.99%	-19.47%	-7.72%	-10.63%	-5.25%	-2.06%
Avg Days to Max Decline	9	7	7	14	6	8	9	8	4	4	2
2006 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	No			Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	38	43	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	18	18	16	18	25	24	24	23	25	21	22
Penetrated Low	11	10	14	14	23	21	18	18	23	15	13
Scenario Percentage	61%	56%	88%	78%	92%	88%	75%	78%	92%	71%	59%
Avg Max Decline	7.17%	5.62%	5.91%	8.45%	8.31%	10.61%	6.45%	7.45%	7.37%	6.59%	13.18%
Max Decline	21.91%	14.93%	14.12%	14.38%	18.95%	26.61%	17.99%	14.92%	22.02%	13.81%	40.14%
Avg Days To Max Decline	10	15	18	19	21	18	16	16	17	17	14
Avg Max Increase	-2.09%	-1.67%	-2.46%	-1.84%	-2.25%	-2.60%	-3.16%	-3.44%	-1.84%	-4.46%	-2.88%
Max Increase	-6.94%	-4.22%	-6.22%	-4.65%	-6.12%	-13.58%	-9.86%	-14.88%	-7.63%	-19.67%	-9.79%
Avg Days to Max Increase	6	5	14	5	10	9	10	8	4	7	3
2006 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes
Action			Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes
High	24.85	25.18	26.03	27.42	27.68	27.72	28.70	28.15	25.76	27.90	29.39
Low	22.48	23.30	23.91	23.57	25.60	25.02	26.58	24.98	23.80	23.46	26.70
Close/Last	24.19	25.11	24.21	26.57	26.27	27.27	27.54	25.74	24.24	26.83	29.18