MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for October Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years		43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		22	21	23	30	23	27	22	19	17	20	19
Exceeded High		16	17	19	27	21	21	16	12	12	12	8
Scenario Percentage		73%	81%	83%	90%	91%	78%	73%	63%	71%	60%	42%
Avg Max Increase		10.44%	11.87%	9.21%	7.57%	9.58%	12.92%	17.60%	21.11%	11.88%	8.36%	4.55%
Max Increase		33.13%	45.66%	33.43%	20.76%	22.86%	44.18%	78.88%	79.29%	55.19%	28.06%	8.05%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	18	15	14	15	17	15	17	17	12	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.78%	-1.58%	-1.77%	-1.26%	-1.86%	-2.06%	-2.13%	-0.89%	-5.37%	-1.47%	-1.60%
Max Decline		-7.76%	-5.76%	-6.77%	-5.94%	-6.59%	-8.19%	-5.65%	-3.00%	-22.53%	-4.93%	-5.00%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	7	9	5	7	9	6	5	10	3	2
2018 Contract Condition				Yes				Yes				Yes
Action				No				No				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years		43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		20	23	22	15	21	18	23	26	27	25	26
Penetrated Low		16	21	12	11	17	15	22	24	19	19	19
Scenario Percentage		80%	91%	55%	73%	81%	83%	96%	92%	70%	76%	73%
Avg Max Decline		5.55%	5.06%	7.35%	5.24%	5.80%	8.65%	8.56%	10.79%	9.22%	7.34%	4.47%
Max Decline		13.97%	22.44%	21.24%	15.33%	14.97%	15.40%	18.48%	27.81%	26.75%	32.49%	17.66%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	18	11	16	17	20	22	17	17	9	6
Avg Max Increase		-2.04%	-2.99%	-2.44%	-2.24%	-3.58%	-1.90%	-2.36%	-2.54%	-3.69%	-1.96%	-0.75%
Max Increase		-6.93%	-12.20%	-7.61%	-4.38%	-10.88%	-5.38%	-6.33%	-13.44%	-24.88%	-7.22%	-2.58%
Avg Days to Max Increase		12	10	5	9	14	9	11	7	10	5	1
2018 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
High	35.49	35.85	34.28	34.18	33.87	33.30	33.36	32.46	31.90	29.51	28.98	29.11
Low	32.96	33.85	32.74	32.63	32.11	31.99	30.96	30.63	28.26	27.72	27.86	26.88
Close/Last	35.18	34.06	33.45	33.64	32.68	32.50	31.09	31.54	29.47	29.01	28.51	28.68