MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for October Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years	37	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	18	19	24	27	26	28	22	20	19	21	19
Exceeded High	12	15	19	24	25	24	17	15	13	14	10
Scenario Percentage	67%	79%	79%	89%	96%	86%	77%	75%	68%	67%	53%
Avg Max Increase	11.62%	14.15%	10.99%	8.77%	10.83%	12.70%	20.95%	24.62%	16.14%	12.21%	10.50%
Max Increase	33.13%	45.66%	34.75%	20.76%	43.93%	44.18%	78.88%	81.32%	55.19%	42.67%	26.45%
Avg Days To Max Increase	19	20	13	16	16	17	17	17	18	13	9
Avg Max Decline	-1.91%	-1.17%	-1.68%	-1.40%	-1.93%	-2.55%	-2.69%	-0.83%	-4.64%	-2.31%	-2.45%
Max Decline	-7.76%	-5.76%	-6.77%	-5.94%	-6.59%	-8.59%	-10.54%	-3.34%	-22.53%	-10.43%	-11.18%
Avg Days to Max Decline	8	6	8	6	8	11	6	4	7	5	2
2009 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years	37	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	18	24	20	18	18	17	23	25	25	24	26
Penetrated Low	16	20	12	12	15	13	21	23	18	19	24
Scenario Percentage	89%	83%	60%	67%	83%	76%	91%	92%	72%	79%	92%
Avg Max Decline	4.93%	4.66%	7.03%	4.87%	6.20%	9.53%	8.84%	10.73%	7.97%	7.73%	13.08%
Max Decline	13.97%	22.44%	21.24%	15.33%	14.97%	15.40%	18.48%	27.81%	26.75%	32.49%	41.93%
Avg Days To Max Decline	13	15	11	15	19	19	23	18	18	11	14
Avg Max Increase	-1.97%	-2.78%	-2.25%	-1.91%	-2.96%	-1.65%	-1.86%	-2.59%	-4.41%	-2.71%	-2.13%
Max Increase	-6.93%	-12.20%	-7.61%	-4.38%	-10.88%	-5.06%	-6.33%	-13.44%	-24.88%	-15.11%	-9.86%
Avg Days to Max Increase	10	11	6	6	16	5	9	6	11	6	4
2009 Contract Condition	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	No	Yes	Not Yet
High	39.28	34.76	38.57	35.86	34.44	38.02	40.66	41.02	36.52	39.20	35.64
Low	32.50	29.80	33.56	30.84	30.50	34.11	36.95	35.00	32.40	34.94	32.93
Close/Last	34.64	34.76	34.02	31.92	34.38	36.97	39.54	35.54	35.42	35.19	33.97