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ScenarioSM Study for September Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Dec 27, 2023 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug |
Tested Years | 44 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 28 | 22 | 22 | 24 | 27 | 23 | 23 | 19 | 22 | 19 | 22 | |
Exceeded High | 20 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 25 | 19 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | |
Scenario Percentage | 71% | 73% | 82% | 79% | 93% | 83% | 78% | 74% | 64% | 63% | 45% | |
Avg Max Increase | 9.34% | 8.93% | 10.82% | 9.68% | 8.24% | 11.79% | 11.04% | 13.15% | 16.04% | 11.09% | 4.85% | |
Max Increase | 18.48% | 22.21% | 35.68% | 31.77% | 21.97% | 34.86% | 43.95% | 32.35% | 81.17% | 59.11% | 11.21% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 18 | 13 | 17 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 16 | 19 | 14 | 8 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.40% | -1.83% | -1.52% | -1.77% | -1.67% | -1.58% | -1.27% | -2.03% | -1.35% | -3.67% | -1.92% | |
Max Decline | -6.64% | -8.22% | -5.70% | -6.71% | -5.99% | -4.32% | -4.26% | -5.72% | -3.37% | -10.83% | -6.01% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |
2023 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||||
Action | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Not Yet |
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